Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$28
Polymarket Trader
hodlthedoor
0xaa34012bebbd01dd524fb7bf416662ff0e6c72ba
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $25.96
- Realized PnL
- $14.88
- Win rate
- 37.5%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.8%
- Current value
- $8.4
- Potential payout
- $78.15
- Potential profit
- $69.75
- Multiplier
- 9.30x
- User PnL
- -$16.6
Yes position
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $4.8
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $15.2
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.6%
- Current value
- $0.31
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $11.69
- Multiplier
- 38.46x
- User PnL
- -$3.29
Yes position
Another Canada election called by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.98
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.38
Yes position
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $1.48
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $6.52
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$3.64
No position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $6.23
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $0.77
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $2.03
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $4.71
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.29
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.71
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.88
No position
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.32
Yes position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54
Yes position
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
ICE shooter charged by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?
Ends Jan 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Yes position
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.44
Yes position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Yes position
Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.54
Yes position
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 32% 78.15 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Yes 7% 400 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No 12% 14 shares
- Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?Yes 20% 23 shares
- Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 4% 30 shares
- Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Yes 20% 6 shares
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes 11% 11.67 shares
- Will Mike Macdonald win NFL Coach of the Year?Yes 4.6% 14.88 shares
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes 22% 21 shares
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 10% 20 shares
- Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?Yes 14% 20 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?No 35% 14 shares