Polymarket Trader

TheRealNancyPelosi

0xaa6474093cf727e0f409dee75a6b2aac12a1a43d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $71.48
Realized PnL: $23.68K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $2.28K
User PnL: -$46.91

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.24K
Potential profit: $2.24K
User PnL: -$106.92

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.51K
Potential profit: $1.51K
User PnL: -$1.01K

Yes position

Crude Oil all time high by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $1.38K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Iran leadership change by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.05K
User PnL: -$262.28

No position

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
User PnL: -$38.91

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $867.86
Potential profit: $867.86
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will UK strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $859.64
Potential profit: $859.64
User PnL: -$194.81

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $64.97
Potential payout: $564.98
Potential profit: $500.01
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$36.23

Yes position

Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $530.88
Potential profit: $530.88
User PnL: -$100

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $513.1
Potential profit: $513.1
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $4.96
Potential payout: $431.36
Potential profit: $426.4
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$95.04

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $358.17
Potential profit: $358.17
User PnL: -$110

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $344.46
Potential profit: $342.91
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$31.59

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $342.73
Potential profit: $342.73
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will France strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $323.78
Potential profit: $323.78
User PnL: -$64.66

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250.18
Potential profit: $250.18
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.61
Potential profit: $192.61
User PnL: -$68.48

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125.91
Potential profit: $125.91
User PnL: -$1.76

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 7?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.9
Potential profit: $119.9
User PnL: -$8.39

Yes position

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$37.18

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$2.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.06K

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.85K

Yes position

Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.44K

Yes position

Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.36K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.43K

Yes position

Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26K

Yes position

Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06K

Yes position

Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 30% in February?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $668.71

Yes position

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $655.93

No position

Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $411.45

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $345.36

Yes position

US military action against Iran by Sunday?

Ends Jun 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $297.65

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $271.42

Yes position

U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $262.18

Yes position

Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $210.2

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.87

Yes position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $165.25

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.22

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $145.23

Yes position

US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.47

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $93.55

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.9

Yes position

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.27

No position

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.75

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Yes 9.4% 24 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Yes 9.2% 43 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Yes 9.3% 251.02 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Yes 17% 7.09 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Yes 13.9% 13.22 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Yes 13.9% 13.22 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Yes 23.2% 431.36 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Yes 17.9% 557.89 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Yes 2% 2,453.91 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 12?

Yes 23% 43.52 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Yes 7% 1,430.57 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Yes 6.9% 724.84 shares