imteq

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $404.94
Potential payout: $408
Potential profit: $3.06
User PnL: $39.28

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?

Implied probability: 9.6%
Current value: $22.46
Potential payout: $234
Potential profit: $211.54
Multiplier: 10.42x
User PnL: $17.18

No position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?

Implied probability: 90.4%
Current value: $88.59
Potential payout: $98
Potential profit: $9.41
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$3.53

No position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $47.05
Potential payout: $97
Potential profit: $49.96
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $7.28

Yes position

Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $50.69
Potential payout: $93
Potential profit: $42.32
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $37.67

No position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 26.2%
Current value: $23.54
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $66.47
Multiplier: 3.82x
User PnL: -$5.27

Yes position

Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $6.77
Potential payout: $33
Potential profit: $26.24
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$2.19

No position

Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m?

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $8.03
Potential payout: $17.65
Potential profit: $9.62
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$6.62

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.18
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.13

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $14.18
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.82
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $2.32
Potential payout: $13.24
Potential profit: $10.92
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $5.66
Potential payout: $10.99
Potential profit: $5.33
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$0.39

Yes position

Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$2.2

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $7.3
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.7
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.3
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $4.3
Potential payout: $8.86
Potential profit: $4.56
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$1.73

No position

Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $7
User PnL: -$1.12

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 83.4%
Current value: $4.17
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.83
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.52

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 16.6%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.17
Multiplier: 6.02x
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $3.98
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.03
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $4.85
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.79
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$2.74

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $3.23
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.78
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $0.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

Implied probability: 90%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $2.94

Yes position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $2.27

No position

Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $0

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?

Implied probability: 87%
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $0

No position

United States to win the second half?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

United States to win the second half?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.8%
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$0.36

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.15

Yes position

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$1.54

No position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?