No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $92.06K
- Potential payout
- $101.73K
- Potential profit
- $9.66K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $5.04K
Polymarket Trader
SlenderMan
0xab19716584931d81cd9e7763402673a64baa4876
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $244.72K
- Realized PnL
- $633.81K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $75.6K
- Potential payout
- $75.79K
- Potential profit
- $189.48
- User PnL
- $4.42K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $10.22K
- Potential payout
- $58.42K
- Potential profit
- $48.2K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.83K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $17.88K
- Potential payout
- $18.65K
- Potential profit
- $774.06
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $242.29
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $15.33K
- Potential payout
- $16.05K
- Potential profit
- $714.01
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $574.37
No position
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $7.66K
- Potential payout
- $7.73K
- Potential profit
- $69.56
- User PnL
- $2.25K
No position
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $4.86K
- Potential payout
- $7.54K
- Potential profit
- $2.68K
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- -$370.92
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $3.75K
- Potential payout
- $5.9K
- Potential profit
- $2.16K
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $4.06
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $5.63K
- Potential payout
- $5.69K
- Potential profit
- $54.03
- User PnL
- $499.14
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $4.43K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $575
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $175.01
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $3.85K
- Potential payout
- $4.58K
- Potential profit
- $732.59
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $450.84
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $3.33K
- Potential payout
- $3.36K
- Potential profit
- $35.29
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $78.99
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $111.95
- Potential payout
- $113.48
- Potential profit
- $1.53
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $31.65
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $5.56
- Potential payout
- $5.76
- Potential profit
- $0.2
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $181.51K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.3K
Yes position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $32.16K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.2K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.81K
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.81K
Yes position
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.64K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.87K
No position
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13?
Ends Nov 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.69K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.61K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.18K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.14K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.73K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.16K
No position
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.11K
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.47K
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.06K
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.44K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.41K
$80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.97K
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.67K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.34K
No position
Will Wolves win on 2025-09-20?
Ends Sep 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.9K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.61K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 95.2% 8,211.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 17% 2,015.39 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?No 99.9% 28.17 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 92.9% 893.79 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 91.9% 699.96 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 92% 399.57 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 23.9% 10,681.08 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?No 89% 166.74 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Yes 4% 7,384 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 99.4% 689 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 87.4% 2,805.09 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14No 75% 1,690 shares