No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $535.71
- Potential profit
- $535.71
- User PnL
- -$300
Polymarket Trader
0xAb636086E41F83C7BBe8C95d4Aa6236568b4FEec-1771835536382
0xab636086e41f83c7bbe8c95d4aa6236568b4feec
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $212.58
- Realized PnL
- $940.19
- Win rate
- 45.5%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 11
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $466.37
- Potential profit
- $466.37
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42%
- Current value
- $163.8
- Potential payout
- $390
- Potential profit
- $226.2
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- $34.8
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $375
- Potential profit
- $375
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $43.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $256.5
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$100.5
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $5.28
- Potential payout
- $94.34
- Potential profit
- $89.06
- Multiplier
- 17.86x
- User PnL
- -$4.72
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $560
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $191
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.22
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.78
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.49
No position
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$75
Yes position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$80.3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Yes 7.3% 479.09 shares
- Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?Yes 25% 200 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 16% 375 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 48% 300 shares
- U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?Yes 20% 375.3 shares
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?Yes 21.4% 466.37 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?No 56% 535.71 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 50% 60 shares
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes 28.7% 104.49 shares
- Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?No 77% 12.99 shares
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 8-14, 2026 (ET)?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)?Yes 18.6% 107.54 shares