Yes position
Will Trump say "Biden" 15+ times during Iowa speech?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.76K
- Potential profit
- $2.76K
- User PnL
- -$1.25K
Polymarket Trader
Merlot
0xac4502d32af912ac03deaece6b294d3c4f8e20c5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.9K
- Realized PnL
- $20.52K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.16K
- Potential profit
- $2.16K
- User PnL
- -$1.82K
Yes position
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during Iowa speech?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.98K
- Potential profit
- $1.98K
- User PnL
- -$1.17K
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.6%
- Current value
- $362.65
- Potential payout
- $1.86K
- Potential profit
- $1.49K
- Multiplier
- 5.12x
- User PnL
- -$564.85
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $1.49K
- Potential payout
- $1.86K
- Potential profit
- $362.65
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $564.85
Yes position
Will Trump say "Stupid" during Iowa speech?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- User PnL
- -$1.5K
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times at Fort Bragg on Friday?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.84K
- Potential profit
- $1.84K
- User PnL
- -$1.15K
No position
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the America Business Forum on November 5?
Ends Nov 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.74K
- Potential profit
- $1.74K
- User PnL
- -$1.02K
Yes position
Fed Derivative: "No Change" flips "25bps cut" by December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$165.68
Yes position
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 6+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
Ends Nov 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $1.64K
- User PnL
- -$1.05K
Yes position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- User PnL
- -$422.37
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $1.33K
- User PnL
- -$645.49
Yes position
Will Trump say "Tariff" or "Inflation" 20+ times during Iowa speech?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- User PnL
- -$944.72
Yes position
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
Ends Nov 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $1.28K
- User PnL
- -$954.35
Yes position
Will Bernie Sanders say "AIPAC" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?
Ends Aug 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.22K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- User PnL
- -$848.6
No position
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during WEF Address on January 21?
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- User PnL
- -$940.04
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on September 27?
Ends Sep 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- User PnL
- -$41.35
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $1.04K
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $135.7
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $45.5
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?
Ends Nov 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- User PnL
- -$706.4
No position
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?
Ends Oct 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$557.26
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- User PnL
- -$3.4
Yes position
Will Trump say "Congratulate" or "Congratulations" during events with Polish president on September 3?
Ends Sep 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- User PnL
- -$824.49
Yes position
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- User PnL
- -$732.9
No position
Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?
Ends Sep 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- User PnL
- -$5.36
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2K
Yes position
Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Colorado rally on October 11?
Ends Oct 11, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
Yes position
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
No position
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
Ends Dec 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC June 10-16?
Ends Jun 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16K
Yes position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $974.24
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during Iowa speech?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $952.98
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?
Ends May 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $851.63
No position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $806.84
Yes position
Will Trump say "Thank" or "Thanks" 20+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?
Ends Nov 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $780
Yes position
Will Trump say "god" 3 or more times during Georgia rally on October 23?
Ends Oct 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $762.7
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $711.73
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $707.14
Yes position
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $677.65
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19?
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $676
Yes position
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
Ends Nov 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $649.01
No position
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $619.44
Yes position
Will JD Vance say "America" or "American" 45+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28?
Ends Aug 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $548.05
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $546.84
Yes position
Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $537.52
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $508.55
No position
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during Egypt summit?
Ends Oct 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $490.36
No position
Will Trump say “Autopen” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?
Ends Jul 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $489.58
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No 54.7% 31.68 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 98.2% 221 shares
- Will Trump say "Inflation" 5+ times during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Yes 47.9% 54 shares
- Will Trump say "Biden" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony?Yes 44% 25 shares
- Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?Yes 92% 170 shares
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 86% 380 shares
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with Xi Jinping?No 71.9% 88 shares
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes 74.5% 50 shares
- Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes 73% 29.07 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No 30% 100 shares
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 84% 800 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 93% 399.88 shares