Yes position
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $932.43
- Potential payout
- $986.7
- Potential profit
- $54.27
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $120.64
Polymarket Trader
The-Defect
0xac6a1ca423ef87d52b6baa7afb70c90229d22ed3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.18K
- Realized PnL
- $5.17K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $652.68
- Potential payout
- $876.09
- Potential profit
- $223.4
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $17.33
No position
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $712.61
- Potential payout
- $722
- Potential profit
- $9.39
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $41.15
Yes position
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.31
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $624.69
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.74
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
Yes position
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.25
- Potential payout
- $499.95
- Potential profit
- $499.7
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $331.39
- Potential payout
- $433.19
- Potential profit
- $101.8
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $11.42
No position
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $242.09
- Potential payout
- $358.66
- Potential profit
- $116.56
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $8.13
No position
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
Ends Oct 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.3%
- Current value
- $320.47
- Potential payout
- $351.01
- Potential profit
- $30.54
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $10.02
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $239.27
- Potential payout
- $334.65
- Potential profit
- $95.38
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $10.55
Yes position
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $217.37
- Potential payout
- $331.86
- Potential profit
- $114.49
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- -$23.14
No position
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $288.72
- Potential payout
- $298.27
- Potential profit
- $9.54
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $15.06
No position
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $256
- Potential payout
- $284.61
- Potential profit
- $28.6
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $15.97
No position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $222.35
- Potential payout
- $281.46
- Potential profit
- $59.11
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $19.27
Yes position
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $29.8
- Potential payout
- $259.11
- Potential profit
- $229.32
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$14.25
Yes position
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $252.69
- Potential profit
- $252.56
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $236.42
- Potential payout
- $250.18
- Potential profit
- $13.76
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
Yes position
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $202.4
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $27.6
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $18.14
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.8%
- Current value
- $138.45
- Potential payout
- $156
- Potential profit
- $17.55
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $9.39
No position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $45.63
- Potential payout
- $125.01
- Potential profit
- $79.38
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- $4.37
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $17.13
- Potential payout
- $81.59
- Potential profit
- $64.46
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$9.21
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $46.08
- Potential payout
- $72.57
- Potential profit
- $26.49
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $4.22
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 49.5%
- Current value
- $35.67
- Potential payout
- $72.07
- Potential profit
- $36.39
- Multiplier
- 2.02x
- User PnL
- -$11.46
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $16.69
- Potential payout
- $71.04
- Potential profit
- $54.35
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $4.36
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $613.31
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $426.76
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $391.06
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $380.88
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $357.25
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $274.11
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $268.66
No position
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $229.64
No position
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.24
No position
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.9
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.72
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.14
US position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $156.33
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.12
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.82
Yes position
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.15
No position
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.02
Yes position
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.74
Yes position
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.87
No position
Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116.14
No position
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.87
Yes position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.05
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.43
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 95% 250 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 36% 50 shares
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 29% 36.75 shares
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 32% 50 shares
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 25.6% 3,162.66 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 24% 72.13 shares
- Will no listed leader be out before 2027?Yes 1.4% 763.36 shares
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 5.8% 321.78 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?No 43.4% 354 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 25% 312.25 shares
- Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 39% 31.4 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes 87% 66 shares