Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $27.73
- Potential payout
- $277.29
- Potential profit
- $249.56
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$58.38
Polymarket Trader
Konfucious
0xac761dd9b3a373cc9031dabaab1ecec546299359
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.33K
- Realized PnL
- $2.39K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$80.8
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $171.86
- Potential payout
- $199.84
- Potential profit
- $27.98
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $26.03
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: July
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $137.7
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $42.3
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $29.4
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $132.61
- Potential payout
- $179.2
- Potential profit
- $46.59
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $22.65
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $160
- User PnL
- -$20
Y
Yes position
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $151.89
- Potential profit
- $151.89
- User PnL
- -$1.61
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $143.13
- Potential payout
- $150.9
- Potential profit
- $7.77
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.53
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $121.51
- Potential payout
- $150.01
- Potential profit
- $28.5
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $17.84
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $149.63
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- User PnL
- $8.83
No position
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $107.25
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $42.75
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $75.48
- Potential payout
- $138.5
- Potential profit
- $63.02
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $11.53
No position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $128.32
- Potential profit
- $128.32
- User PnL
- -$19.76
No position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125.05
- Potential profit
- $125.05
- User PnL
- -$51.24
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $6.04
- Potential payout
- $105
- Potential profit
- $98.96
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$12.56
Yes position
Will Bulls win the 2026 United Rugby Championship Grand Final?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $105
- Potential profit
- $105
- User PnL
- -$7.98
No position
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $56.1
- Potential payout
- $101.08
- Potential profit
- $44.98
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $7.21
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $68.12
- Potential payout
- $100.17
- Potential profit
- $32.05
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $37.41
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1.3
No position
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $4.1
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.9
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $87.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $12.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $4.5
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.7%
- Current value
- $13.65
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $86.35
- Multiplier
- 7.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $32
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $68
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- -$26
Yes position
Will Stormers win the 2026 United Rugby Championship Grand Final?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $97
- Potential profit
- $97
- User PnL
- -$14.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $187.28
No position
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.48
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.76
No position
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.24
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.94
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.19
No position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.12
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $105.9
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $103.56
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $102.78
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.19
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.03
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.77
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $90.94
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.02
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $84.04
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.61
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.27
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.46
No position
Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.68
No position
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 2, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.74
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.09
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.4
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 48.6% 60 shares
- Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?Yes 33.6% 10 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?No 77% 3 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by July 15?No 85% 102 shares
- US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?No 4.4% 100 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?No 63% 9.52 shares
- Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026?Yes 89% 7.01 shares
- Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?No 85% 20.33 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?Yes 40.5% 40 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?Yes 2.8% 95 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?Yes 33% 20 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?Yes 31% 20 shares