Polymarket Trader

polimoly

@polimoly69

0xac8f7a528559574627a6cc44e2307704e89bfedd

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $372.51
Realized PnL: $9.01K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.99K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $6.23
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.13K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $8.83
Potential payout: $767.6
Potential profit: $758.77
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$5.17

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $23.11
Potential payout: $757.75
Potential profit: $734.64
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$5.11

Yes position

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $6.28
Potential payout: $502.35
Potential profit: $496.07
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$8.84

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $447.02
Potential profit: $447.02
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $4.2
Potential payout: $399.95
Potential profit: $395.75
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $8.25
Potential payout: $366.73
Potential profit: $358.48
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $18.87
Potential payout: $339.96
Potential profit: $321.09
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: $8.22

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $8.72
Potential payout: $335.23
Potential profit: $326.51
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16.7%
Current value: $51.98
Potential payout: $311.24
Potential profit: $259.27
Multiplier: 5.99x
User PnL: $16.98

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 8.9%
Current value: $27.29
Potential payout: $308.35
Potential profit: $281.06
Multiplier: 11.30x
User PnL: -$2.71

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.8%
Current value: $31.2
Potential payout: $244.7
Potential profit: $213.5
Multiplier: 7.84x
User PnL: -$12.51

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.1%
Current value: $13.5
Potential payout: $189.09
Potential profit: $175.59
Multiplier: 14.01x
User PnL: $2.54

Yes position

DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $154.98
Potential profit: $153.43
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $150.63
Potential profit: $149.73
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will "Friendly" or "Neighbor" or "Neighborhood" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $25.31
Potential payout: $120.51
Potential profit: $95.21
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$21.69

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $4.29
Potential payout: $117.45
Potential profit: $113.16
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $55.37
Potential payout: $109.65
Potential profit: $54.28
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $35.69

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $25.07
Potential payout: $106.66
Potential profit: $81.6
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.93

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $102.05
Potential profit: $96.74
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Trump say "Jesus" this week?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $28
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $71.99
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $2.16
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $77.84
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Trump pays Jan 6 rioter?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $3.61
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $51.94
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$1.39

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $949.71

Yes position

Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $873.72

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $563.75

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $472.12

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $449.36

Yes position

Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $441.7

Yes position

Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $284.52

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $284.38

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $274.67

Yes position

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $266.21

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $255.72

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253.82

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $245.05

No position

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.4%
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $221.69

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $215.91

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $209.49

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $207.05

Yes position

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.4

Yes position

Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $205.76

Yes position

Will Trump sue the BBC?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $201.41

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.39

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.58

Yes position

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.62

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026?

No 1% 130.06 shares
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Yes 5.8% 188.51 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 1.2% 402.71 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 14.1% 106.36 shares
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Yes 3% 527.73 shares
Will "Friendly" or "Neighbor" or "Neighborhood" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

Yes 32% 12.51 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Yes 4.7% 102.04 shares
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Yes 0.8% 263.19 shares
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026?

Yes 1.1% 41.22 shares
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026?

Yes 2% 5.25 shares
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?

Yes 28% 13.96 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Yes 68% 57.69 shares