Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $25.39
- Potential payout
- $40.63
- Potential profit
- $15.23
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
Polymarket Trader
luanma
0xadb35d91751442f9c55e56e5668b6bfe5cf42e36
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $60.12
- Realized PnL
- $233.8
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $38.46
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $34.73
- Potential payout
- $38.37
- Potential profit
- $3.65
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.73
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.86
- Potential profit
- $6.86
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.31
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.31
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.31
- Potential profit
- $4.31
- User PnL
- -$2.2
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.94
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
Ends Nov 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.82
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Ends Nov 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.45
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
Ends Nov 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.67
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
Ends Nov 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.09
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.93
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.71
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
Ends Oct 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.19
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.47
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.71
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.71
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.71
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Ends Oct 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
Ends Oct 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.93
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.32
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.32
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.05
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.05
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 64% 40.63 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 86% 38.37 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ETDown 52% 2.31 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ETDown 51% 2.35 shares