Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $27.59
- Potential payout
- $90.46
- Potential profit
- $62.87
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $2.6
Polymarket Trader
trader-adb51585
0xadb51585c4d71616524a051841a8ad4778584d50
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $238.38
- Realized PnL
- -$38.3
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $35.64
- Potential payout
- $50.56
- Potential profit
- $14.92
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$1.12
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $25.85
- Potential payout
- $50.2
- Potential profit
- $24.35
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $0.86
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $3.7
- Potential payout
- $43.54
- Potential profit
- $39.84
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$2.83
Yes position
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $5.41
- Potential payout
- $30.94
- Potential profit
- $25.53
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$9.81
Yes position
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.4%
- Current value
- $11.51
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $18.49
- Multiplier
- 2.61x
- User PnL
- $11.21
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $5.51
- Potential payout
- $25.64
- Potential profit
- $20.13
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$10.38
No position
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.15
- Potential payout
- $25.31
- Potential profit
- $25.16
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$19.84
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $0.71
- Potential payout
- $22.47
- Potential profit
- $21.76
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
No position
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Ends Oct 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $12.51
- Potential payout
- $20.02
- Potential profit
- $7.51
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.1%
- Current value
- $7.11
- Potential payout
- $19.2
- Potential profit
- $12.09
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $9.73
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $8.13
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $0.09
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $13.89
- Potential payout
- $17.81
- Potential profit
- $3.92
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $7.7
No position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $13.44
- Potential payout
- $16
- Potential profit
- $2.56
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.8%
- Current value
- $12.25
- Potential payout
- $13.2
- Potential profit
- $0.95
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.38
No position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $10.73
- Potential payout
- $13.08
- Potential profit
- $2.35
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $4.19
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $1.48
- Potential payout
- $11.8
- Potential profit
- $10.33
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.72
N
No position
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $8.98
- Potential payout
- $9.6
- Potential profit
- $0.62
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.34
N
No position
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 70%+?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $5.23
- Potential payout
- $6.12
- Potential profit
- $0.89
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $5.79
- Potential payout
- $6.01
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.94
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $5.86
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.1%
- Current value
- $5.2
- Potential payout
- $5.59
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $5.31
- Potential payout
- $5.5
- Potential profit
- $0.19
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $4.78
- Potential payout
- $4.78
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $1.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.94
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08
Yes position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Y
Yes position
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of June 27?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.33
Y
Yes position
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$1.34
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.82
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.25
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.44
No position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.55
No position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.7
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.76
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.52
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10.92
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Yes 28% 14.68 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 49% 13.12 shares
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 8% 6.1 shares
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026?Yes 46% 19.85 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 93% 16.64 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Yes 62% 40.32 shares
- Starmer out by June 22, 2026?No 38% 7.69 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?No 95% 10 shares
- Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Yes 0.3% 5 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 94% 23.99 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 27% 15.82 shares
- Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 85% 5.5 shares