Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $194.9
- Potential payout
- $195
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $54.5
Polymarket Trader
jiuyisan
0xade181f2c569ed88b0ec16f274807b498696950a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $199.9
- Realized PnL
- -$82.47
- Win rate
- 70%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 10
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $4.99
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.95
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.59
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Moonbirds FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14.8
Yes position
Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$88
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?No 99.9% 5 shares
- Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?No 85% 5 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.7% 5 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No 99.8% 5 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?No 98.9% 5 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?No 98% 5 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?No 99.5% 5 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?No 98.4% 100 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 95% 104 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 95% 5 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No 95% 99 shares
- Zama FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 4.4% 2,000 shares