DontDonk

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $299.7
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $2.2

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $299.85
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $1.35

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $299.85
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $1.35

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $299.85
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $1.35

No position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $149.78
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $0.22
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$149.7

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $92.5
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$6.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $73.28
Potential payout: $73.32
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $51.29
Potential payout: $59.99
Potential profit: $8.7
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $44.49
Potential payout: $46.59
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $4.81

Yes position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $1.82
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.18
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$4.98

Over position

United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.22
Potential profit: $39.22
User PnL: -$20

Under position

Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.09
Potential profit: $35.09
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $30.7
Potential payout: $30.87
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $3.7

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $30.84
Potential payout: $30.86
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.1%
Current value: $4.81
Potential payout: $25.25
Potential profit: $20.44
Multiplier: 5.25x
User PnL: -$0.19

Ecuador position

Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$13.6

Over position

Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$10.8

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Implied probability: 48.4%
Current value: $9.24
Potential payout: $19.12
Potential profit: $9.88
Multiplier: 2.07x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $18.52
User PnL: -$10

Over position

Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $18.52
User PnL: -$10

Over position

England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.93
Potential profit: $17.93
User PnL: -$15

England position

Spread: England (-1.5)

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.87
Potential profit: $15.87
User PnL: -$10

Over position

Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.7
Potential profit: $13.7
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $336.44

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248.34

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $232.58

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $224.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6AM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.52

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8PM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.57

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.92

Yes position

Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 11PM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.71

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.21

Yes position

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10PM ET