helloSparrow

Implied probability: 46.3%
Current value: $93.06
Potential payout: $201
Potential profit: $107.94
Multiplier: 2.16x
User PnL: -$56.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $155.4
Potential payout: $156.58
Potential profit: $1.17
User PnL: $124.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $148.59
Potential profit: $148.52
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$17.16

No position

Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $133.86
Potential payout: $138
Potential profit: $4.14
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $28.47

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $22.48
Potential payout: $136.26
Potential profit: $113.78
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.66

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 18?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $16.59
Potential payout: $118.52
Potential profit: $101.93
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$0.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $25.47
Potential payout: $110.75
Potential profit: $85.28
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: -$4.52

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.8
Potential payout: $107
Potential profit: $106.2
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$76.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $46.96
Potential payout: $106.73
Potential profit: $59.77
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: $16.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.61
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $96.39
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$15.3

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $9.18
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $92.82
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$68.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $41.66
Potential payout: $93.62
Potential profit: $51.96
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $6.51

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $1.73
Potential payout: $91.01
Potential profit: $89.28
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$65.05

No position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $85.73
Potential profit: $85.69
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$40.34

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $78.1
Potential payout: $78.26
Potential profit: $0.16
User PnL: $33.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $34.24
Potential payout: $73.64
Potential profit: $39.4
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $11.42

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $73.32
Potential payout: $73.35
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $13.45

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $68.75
Potential payout: $70.84
Potential profit: $2.09
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $31.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $69.3
Potential payout: $69.4
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: $49.77

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $38.16
Potential payout: $68.15
Potential profit: $29.99
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$6.17

No position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $65.74
Potential profit: $65.64
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$40.49

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $42.84
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $20.16
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: -$2.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $43.46
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $19.54
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: -$3.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $20.16
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $42.84
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $1.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.19K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $484.48

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $446.88

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $432.36

No position

US strike on Cuba by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.93

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.12

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $17.55

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.25

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.36

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.34

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.45

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17?