Polymarket Trader

tj1

0xae4e83921afde64ed6d209966cc9e5234bcc3507

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $343.21
Realized PnL: $377.29
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $35.77
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.52K
Multiplier: 43.48x
User PnL: -$30.03

No position

Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $29.14
Potential payout: $757
Potential profit: $727.86
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$8.71

No position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 65.7%
Current value: $213
Potential payout: $324.19
Potential profit: $111.2
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: -$81.8

Yes position

Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $124.35
Potential profit: $124.29
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$18.22

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $16.75
Potential payout: $36.8
Potential profit: $20.06
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.73
Potential profit: $28.73
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.1%
Current value: $6.24
Potential payout: $27.08
Potential profit: $20.83
Multiplier: 4.34x
User PnL: -$8.76

No position

Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $25.08
Potential profit: $25.04
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$9.96

Yes position

Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.95
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$14.45

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $22.15
Potential payout: $22.99
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.15

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $19.96
Potential payout: $22.06
Potential profit: $2.1
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $4.96

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $11.66
Potential profit: $11.65
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.65

Yes position

Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.95
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$6.65

Yes position

Will Starmer say "Appalling" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.09
Potential profit: $1.09
User PnL: -$0.09

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.5

Yes position

Will Dispatch win Outstanding Story-Rich Game in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

No position

Will JD Vance say "Trump" or "President" 20+ times during his remarks to US troops in UK on August 13?

Ends Aug 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.4

No position

Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 World Series?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.99

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.72

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.57

No position

Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14

No position

Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.4

No position

Will Bernie Sanders say "ICE" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?

Ends Aug 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.27

Yes position

Will Trump say "Nvidia" during his AI speech on July 23?

Ends Jul 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.4

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.32

No position

Will Bernie Sanders say "Epstein" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?

Ends Aug 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.32

Yes position

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.28

Yes position

Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.87

Yes position

Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.6

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.31

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.29

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.23

Yes position

Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.23

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.21

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.58

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran / Israel" 15+ times during his NATO speech?

Ends Jun 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.56

Yes position

Will anyone say "Grand Theft Auto" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?

Ends Jul 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

Yes position

Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during the DC Crime Press Conference?

Ends Aug 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.86

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

No 93.6% 121.74 shares
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

No 90.1% 41.98 shares
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

No 89.5% 117.18 shares
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

No 88% 43.29 shares
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

No 99.6% 21.78 shares
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

No 2.5% 726 shares
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?

No 5% 757 shares
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

No 2.2% 55 shares
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

No 6% 774 shares
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Yes 28% 5 shares
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Yes 28.3% 131 shares
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Yes 21% 230 shares