Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.2%
- Current value
- $17.23
- Potential payout
- $210.17
- Potential profit
- $192.93
- Multiplier
- 12.20x
- User PnL
- -$32.77
Polymarket Trader
deckarddroid
0xae587db2beff5d394d506b969e98d6968019666f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $205.85
- Realized PnL
- $29.9
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $13
- Potential payout
- $68.45
- Potential profit
- $55.44
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $33.48
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $33
- Potential payout
- $35.29
- Potential profit
- $2.29
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $4.24
- Potential payout
- $34.62
- Potential profit
- $30.37
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- -$4.76
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $26.28
- Potential payout
- $28.41
- Potential profit
- $2.13
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.28
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $4.58
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $23.19
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Yes position
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $9.03
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $18.75
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.97
No position
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $26.32
- Potential payout
- $26.32
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.32
Yes position
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.57
- Potential profit
- $23.57
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $20.73
- Potential payout
- $20.73
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.73
No position
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.2
- Potential profit
- $20.2
- User PnL
- -$17
No position
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.97
- Potential profit
- $16.97
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $16.67
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $13.83
- Potential payout
- $14.62
- Potential profit
- $0.79
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.05
- Potential profit
- $13.05
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.6%
- Current value
- $2.46
- Potential payout
- $11.94
- Potential profit
- $9.48
- Multiplier
- 4.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.6%
- Current value
- $2.41
- Potential payout
- $10.68
- Potential profit
- $8.27
- Multiplier
- 4.43x
- User PnL
- -$7.59
Yes position
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.04
- Potential profit
- $8.04
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Ends Jan 10, 2027- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $5.76
- Potential payout
- $7.58
- Potential profit
- $1.82
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.76
No position
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $5.54
- Potential payout
- $6.41
- Potential profit
- $0.87
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.54
Yes position
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $6.41
- Potential payout
- $6.41
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.41
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $5.03
- Potential payout
- $6.02
- Potential profit
- $0.99
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $5.88
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.57
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.06
No position
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
No position
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤4.2%?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24
No position
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06
No position
Will the US lose jobs in January?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06
No position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.74
No position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.59
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.59
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Trump out as President by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.48
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 88.6% 3.39 shares
- Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?No 94.9% 2.11 shares
- US strikes Iraq by February 28?No 84.4% 3.55 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 25.1% 11.94 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,500 in December?Yes 20% 10 shares
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 13?Up 63% 1.59 shares
- Silver (SI) Up or Down on February 13?Up 92% 1.09 shares
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12?Up 76% 2.63 shares
- Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 33% 6.06 shares
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026?No 60% 1.67 shares
- Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 40% 2.5 shares
- Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 9 above $215?No 84% 3.29 shares