No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $69
- Potential payout
- $46K
- Potential profit
- $45.93K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$18.83K
Polymarket Trader
Ume-Chang
0xae89da6594bb0d421c8d807d74e213f8729e90b8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $28.26K
- Realized PnL
- $35.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $7.27K
- Potential payout
- $29.68K
- Potential profit
- $22.41K
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$2.83K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $28K
- Potential profit
- $27.99K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$13.08K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.96K
- Potential payout
- $11K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $825
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.8%
- Current value
- $6.25K
- Potential payout
- $9.09K
- Potential profit
- $2.84K
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- $3.85K
No position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $3.98K
- Potential payout
- $5.53K
- Potential profit
- $1.55K
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $2.87K
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.6%
- Current value
- $479.16
- Potential payout
- $1.31K
- Potential profit
- $830.03
- Multiplier
- 2.73x
- User PnL
- $211.2
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.3%
- Current value
- $240.68
- Potential payout
- $745.15
- Potential profit
- $504.47
- Multiplier
- 3.10x
- User PnL
- $198.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10K
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.85K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.59K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.01K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.87K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $720
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341.99
No position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $298.05
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $271.01
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.77
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.41
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.61
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.09
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.3
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.99
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.88
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.94
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.83
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.94
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.99
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ETUp 91% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ETUp 89% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ETUp 91% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ETUp 93% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ETDown 93.1% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ETDown 90% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETUp 78% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETUp 84% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ETUp 91% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ETUp 94.5% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ETUp 91% 10.52 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ETUp 91% 10.52 shares