No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $173.04
- Potential payout
- $306.33
- Potential profit
- $133.28
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $20.56
Polymarket Trader
franzferdinand
0xae9a4e352cc5882fce745ad1c7a19f4334117cea
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $744.48
- Realized PnL
- $3.21K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $194.42
- Potential payout
- $222.19
- Potential profit
- $27.77
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $82.86
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $75.33
- Potential payout
- $80.57
- Potential profit
- $5.24
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $12.64
No position
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $47.88
- Potential payout
- $59.85
- Potential profit
- $11.97
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $19.75
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 74.6%
- Current value
- $40.98
- Potential payout
- $54.93
- Potential profit
- $13.95
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
No position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $35.15
- Potential payout
- $39.95
- Potential profit
- $4.79
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $5.59
No position
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 74.3%
- Current value
- $28.69
- Potential payout
- $38.64
- Potential profit
- $9.95
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $20.02
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.6%
- Current value
- $6.5
- Potential payout
- $31.61
- Potential profit
- $25.11
- Multiplier
- 4.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
No position
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $24.06
- Potential payout
- $26.73
- Potential profit
- $2.67
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.9
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 39.4%
- Current value
- $10.37
- Potential payout
- $26.35
- Potential profit
- $15.98
- Multiplier
- 2.54x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $22.68
- Potential payout
- $25.06
- Potential profit
- $2.38
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.39
No position
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.1%
- Current value
- $15.19
- Potential payout
- $19.46
- Potential profit
- $4.27
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $4.48
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $7.43
- Potential payout
- $18.81
- Potential profit
- $11.38
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $9.47
- Potential payout
- $12.54
- Potential profit
- $3.07
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $1.57
Yes position
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $11.95
- Potential payout
- $11.95
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $6.93
No position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $6.44
- Potential payout
- $11.2
- Potential profit
- $4.76
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
No position
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $7.64
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.04
No position
Will Solana reach $260 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $7.11
- Potential payout
- $7.33
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.39
- Potential payout
- $5.95
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $5.73
- Potential payout
- $5.92
- Potential profit
- $0.19
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.64
No position
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.91
- Potential profit
- $4.91
- User PnL
- -$2.55
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56%
- Current value
- $2.68
- Potential payout
- $4.79
- Potential profit
- $2.11
- Multiplier
- 1.79x
- User PnL
- -$0.72
No position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $3.85
- Potential payout
- $4.07
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $2.51
- Potential payout
- $3.33
- Potential profit
- $0.82
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $334.73
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $318.41
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240.27
San Diego Padres position
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.87
Toronto Blue Jays position
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.87
Atlanta Braves position
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $156.03
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.42
Athletics position
Houston Astros vs. Athletics
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.49
No position
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.81
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.26
Under position
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.92
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.74
No position
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?
Ends Mar 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.4
Maple Leafs position
Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.14
BIG position
LoL: French Flair vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.75
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.72
No position
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.54
Magic position
Magic vs. Clippers
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.21
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.3
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.73
Bucks position
Bucks vs. Pelicans
Ends Feb 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.95
Tennessee Volunteers position
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Ends Feb 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.95
Yes position
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $71.74
Yes position
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No 33% 10.19 shares
- Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No 34% 13.96 shares
- Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No 34% 13.96 shares
- Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No 37% 11.65 shares
- Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No 45% 8.38 shares
- Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?No 5% 7.54 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 8% 63.82 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.4% 19.01 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 26% 65.2 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 99% 4.42 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No 45% 7.71 shares
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?No 45.1% 5 shares