Polymarket Trader

semipol

0xaef51bcd772acb7b9440204259d162c7729f5ee2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $571.17
Realized PnL: $7.56K
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12K
Potential profit: $12K
User PnL: -$4.97K

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $36.48
Potential payout: $3.84K
Potential profit: $3.8K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$249.82

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $280.01
Potential payout: $2.24K
Potential profit: $1.96K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$550.45

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$141.75

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $253.03
Potential payout: $1.75K
Potential profit: $1.49K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$514.67

Yes position

Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$470

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$140

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$43.53

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$32.49

No position

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$78.93

No position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$220

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $800
User PnL: -$110.48

Yes position

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.66
Potential payout: $254.64
Potential profit: $252.99
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$54.89

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.09K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45K

Yes position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $550.85

Yes position

Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $392.54

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $230

No position

Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.83

Yes position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $136.72

Yes position

Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.19

Yes position

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $104.89

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be 43.5–43.9% on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.48

No position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $67.67

Yes position

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $54.42

No position

Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.98

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.74

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $20

No position

Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.99

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.42

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.1%
Multiplier: 4.99x
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.08

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.82

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.01

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.29

No position

Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$12

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Yes 44% 1,745 shares
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?

Yes 2.6% 200 shares
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Yes 8.2% 1,300 shares
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

No 88% 1,000 shares
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Yes 42% 1,240.08 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Yes 38% 6.1 shares
Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?

No 0.2% 930.17 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Yes 37% 456 shares
Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?

No 3.3% 299.99 shares
Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?

No 7% 100 shares
Will 300 or more house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?

No 64% 430.18 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?

Yes 38% 119.11 shares