Polymarket Trader

0xaF05465D8f88a8Aad0BD916d23fA781BaA8a33E2-1781769499788

0xaf05465d8f88a8aad0bd916d23fa781baa8a33e2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $309.39
Realized PnL: $85.65
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.7%
Current value: $9.44
Potential payout: $123.46
Potential profit: $114.01
Multiplier: 13.07x
User PnL: -$0.56

No position

Will Trump resign before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $45.26
Potential payout: $46.21
Potential profit: $0.95
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.11

No position

Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg?

Ends Nov 5, 2026

Implied probability: 84.4%
Current value: $33.76
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $6.24
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$3.81

No position

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $12.26
Potential payout: $24.52
Potential profit: $12.26
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$0.55

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $21.62
Potential payout: $22.13
Potential profit: $0.51
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.16

No position

Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $13.45
Potential payout: $16.4
Potential profit: $2.95
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $15.44
Potential payout: $16.13
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.28

No position

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $6.38
Potential payout: $15.01
Potential profit: $8.63
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$5.31

No position

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.7%
Current value: $13.31
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $1.7
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.32

No position

Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$9.65

No position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $10.58
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $4.43
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$0.77

No position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 95.1%
Current value: $14.27
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.73
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $14.45
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.55
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $4.27
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $10.73
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.48

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $13.35
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $1.65
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$10.3

No position

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $8.7
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $6.3
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.4%
Current value: $13.68
Potential payout: $14.8
Potential profit: $1.12
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $6.16
Potential payout: $14.49
Potential profit: $8.33
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$0.22

No position

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 66%
Current value: $8.91
Potential payout: $13.5
Potential profit: $4.59
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $11.55
Potential payout: $12.2
Potential profit: $0.65
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 78.2%
Current value: $9.36
Potential payout: $11.97
Potential profit: $2.62
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $8.22
Potential payout: $10.88
Potential profit: $2.67
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: -$0.52

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.4

No position

Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $6.35

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $6

No position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.79

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $5.13

No position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.48

No position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $4.3

No position

Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.63

No position

Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.49

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $3.08

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $3

No position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $2.97

No position

Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.95

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $2.93

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $2.92

No position

Will USD be less than 1.5M Iranian rials on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $2.69

No position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85.3%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.55

No position

Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $2.43

No position

Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.21

No position

Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.2

No position

Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2.15

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.9%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $2.06

No position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.01

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $1.95

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 80.8% 5 shares
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?

No 83% 5 shares
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

No 85% 5 shares
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

No 69% 5 shares
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

No 67% 5 shares
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 65% 5 shares
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

No 50% 5 shares
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

No 87% 5 shares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

No 73.9% 5 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 52% 5 shares
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?

No 89% 5 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

No 59% 5 shares