Polymarket Trader

0xaf15...3b51

0xaf15bf5126d32163df76defd6887ca316df63b51

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $179.67
Realized PnL: $188
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $44.94
Potential payout: $290.86
Potential profit: $245.92
Multiplier: 6.47x
User PnL: $1.91

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.2%
Current value: $10.62
Potential payout: $45.89
Potential profit: $35.27
Multiplier: 4.32x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $33.03
Potential payout: $42.08
Potential profit: $9.05
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $12.39

No position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $39.11
Potential payout: $39.79
Potential profit: $0.68
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $2.13

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.35
Potential profit: $37.35
User PnL: -$4.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.64
Potential profit: $32.64
User PnL: -$4.29

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $21.12
Potential payout: $32.25
Potential profit: $11.13
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $4.81

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $9.26
Potential payout: $26.86
Potential profit: $17.59
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$4.82

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.63
Potential profit: $22.63
User PnL: -$5.41

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.62
Potential profit: $22.62
User PnL: -$14.2

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.8%
Current value: $5.34
Potential payout: $20.75
Potential profit: $15.4
Multiplier: 3.88x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $1.51
Potential payout: $20.1
Potential profit: $18.6
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.88
Potential payout: $19.77
Potential profit: $17.89
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.95

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.49
Potential profit: $19.49
User PnL: -$2.56

Yes position

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $18
Potential profit: $17.89
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$4.77

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.75
Potential profit: $17.75
User PnL: -$7.04

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.68
Potential profit: $17.68
User PnL: -$6.34

No position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 68.3%
Current value: $11.37
Potential payout: $16.65
Potential profit: $5.28
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.35
Potential profit: $16.35
User PnL: -$6.3

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.06
Potential profit: $16.06
User PnL: -$4.27

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.89
Potential profit: $15.89
User PnL: -$4.04

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $14.39
Potential profit: $14.21
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$3.59

Yes position

Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $14.12
Potential profit: $12.92
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.32

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.52
Potential profit: $13.52
User PnL: -$4.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.36

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.61

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $13.78

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.84

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.96

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.36

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.08

No position

Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.49

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.94

No position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 79%
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $7.79

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.01

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.86

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.74

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.57

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.72

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.34

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.25

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.62

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.57

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

No 28% 0.04 shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Yes 53% 0.01 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

No 57% 0.18 shares
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

No 28% 0.04 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Yes 52% 0.03 shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Yes 52% 0.09 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 35% 0.33 shares
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

No 31.1% 0.08 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

No 56% 0.18 shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Yes 29% 0.73 shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Yes 52% 0.13 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

No 54% 0.18 shares