Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $2.54K
- Potential payout
- $15.41K
- Potential profit
- $12.88K
- Multiplier
- 6.08x
- User PnL
- $509.58
Polymarket Trader
apple-pi
0xaf2383b66194112d57ac196b00ab25f78c17aa95
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $81.59K
- Realized PnL
- $64.42K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Current value
- $930.73
- Potential payout
- $10.23K
- Potential profit
- $9.3K
- Multiplier
- 10.99x
- User PnL
- -$1.76K
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $8.29K
- Potential payout
- $10.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.76K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $645.62
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.08K
- Potential payout
- $10.03K
- Potential profit
- $952.75
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $162.04
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $9.54K
- Potential payout
- $10.02K
- Potential profit
- $481.08
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $432.92
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $7.77K
- Potential payout
- $8.09K
- Potential profit
- $323.76
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $141.85
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $6.94K
- Potential payout
- $7.67K
- Potential profit
- $728.73
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.59K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $6.35K
- Potential payout
- $6.77K
- Potential profit
- $426.75
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $853.46
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $1.82K
- Potential payout
- $6.51K
- Potential profit
- $4.69K
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- $200.99
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $5.19K
- Potential payout
- $5.47K
- Potential profit
- $284.54
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $332.14
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $2.74K
- Potential payout
- $5.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.28K
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $71.63
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $4.71K
- Potential payout
- $4.81K
- Potential profit
- $103.48
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $837.53
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $582.33
- Potential payout
- $3.54K
- Potential profit
- $2.96K
- Multiplier
- 6.08x
- User PnL
- -$86.69
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $3.36K
- Potential payout
- $3.42K
- Potential profit
- $59.92
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $289.64
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $2.82K
- Potential payout
- $3.26K
- Potential profit
- $439.78
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $115.18
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $2.91K
- Potential payout
- $2.96K
- Potential profit
- $48.82
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $490.33
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $1.91K
- Potential payout
- $2.49K
- Potential profit
- $571.62
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $75.18
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $541.95
- Potential payout
- $1.41K
- Potential profit
- $865.72
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- $242.3
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $430.68
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $915.21
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- $113.02
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $979.13
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $300.78
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $245.14
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.4%
- Current value
- $124.52
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 9.62x
- User PnL
- $16
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.1%
- Current value
- $833.08
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $220.79
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$101.14
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $362.1
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $657.9
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$576.43
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $835
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $165
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.26K
Yes position
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.24K
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.47K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.13K
Yes position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.74K
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.15K
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87K
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94K
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.83K
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
No position
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
Yes position
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?No 18.9% 3,539.99 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 31.1% 3,293.99 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?No 74.7% 1,377.12 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?No 73% 1,069.71 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 27% 736.79 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?Yes 6% 100 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 24.7% 717.5 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 23% 27.33 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 21% 360.99 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 17.1% 753.45 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 14% 953.59 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 79% 413.51 shares