Polymarket Trader

StanGrossman

0xaf353d5c352e0e338cad96345d8fab34dce19a45

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $735.86
Realized PnL: $6.91K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.98K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $23
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $10.83
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.66K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$6.72

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $41.3
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.36K
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$40.7

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $160.78
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.24K
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$169.57

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $43.45
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.06K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$12.55

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $24.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $975.5
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $13.5

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $33
Potential payout: $503.88
Potential profit: $470.88
Multiplier: 15.27x
User PnL: $31.8

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $28.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $471.25
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$9.05

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.9%
Current value: $62.55
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $237.45
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: $36.15

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $53.63
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $196.38
Multiplier: 4.66x
User PnL: $4.37

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $29
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $171
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $175
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $18.81
Potential payout: $163.53
Potential profit: $144.72
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.81

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 17.4%
Current value: $19.99
Potential payout: $114.63
Potential profit: $94.64
Multiplier: 5.73x
User PnL: $15.55

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $9.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $90.5
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$6.5

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $52.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $47.5
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $33.5

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $26.02
Potential payout: $96.39
Potential profit: $70.36
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $3.58

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 9.6%
Current value: $6.67
Potential payout: $69.82
Potential profit: $63.15
Multiplier: 10.47x
User PnL: $1.01

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $27.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $22.75
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $18.25

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $10.3
Potential payout: $39.61
Potential profit: $29.31
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $2.6
Potential payout: $21.19
Potential profit: $18.59
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $1.43
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $4.82
Multiplier: 4.36x
User PnL: $0.43

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.55K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26K

Yes position

Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $739.27

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $441

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $313

No position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $240.57

No position

OpenAI browser in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $217.15

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.03

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $190.76

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $167.57

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $140.31

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $131.67

Yes position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $123.01

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $122.5

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.44

No position

US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.62

No position

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $104.84

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $102.11

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.04

Yes position

Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.53

Yes position

Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $91.98

Yes position

Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $88.47

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Yes 1.9% 75 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 0.5% 75 shares
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 0.3% 47.38 shares
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

Yes 0.3% 477.02 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 30% 225 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Yes 9.7% 200 shares
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

No 5% 199.98 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?

No 3% 263.12 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?

No 3.8% 304.42 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?

No 4% 451.01 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?

No 5% 362.34 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Yes 0.2% 928.06 shares