Yes position
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $310.59
- Potential payout
- $41.41K
- Potential profit
- $41.1K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Polymarket Trader
nidrac2
@policardifr
0xaf68f19b5deceb2188ddc0e3ac225907923ae9a7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.98K
- Realized PnL
- $3.04K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $104.84
- Potential payout
- $16.13K
- Potential profit
- $16.02K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $479.71
- Potential payout
- $4.17K
- Potential profit
- $3.69K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $192.39
Yes position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $131.61
- Potential payout
- $3.93K
- Potential profit
- $3.8K
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- $64.1
Yes position
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $64.26
- Potential payout
- $3.89K
- Potential profit
- $3.83K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- $9.12
Yes position
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $16.55
- Potential payout
- $2.21K
- Potential profit
- $2.19K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.69
Yes position
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Oct 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $141.55
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$84.78
Yes position
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $6.5
- Potential payout
- $999.62
- Potential profit
- $993.12
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$1.31
Yes position
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
Ends Oct 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $447.39
- Potential payout
- $852.17
- Potential profit
- $404.78
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $14.87
Yes position
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $111
- Potential payout
- $600.01
- Potential profit
- $489.01
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $106.31
Yes position
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $14.7
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $585.3
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- $10.01
Yes position
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $3.9
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $596.1
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
Yes position
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $2.6
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $397.4
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
Yes position
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $75.18
- Potential payout
- $214.81
- Potential profit
- $139.63
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- $9.74
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.6%
- Current value
- $10.55
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $89.45
- Multiplier
- 9.48x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $99.99
- User PnL
- -$1.3
No position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80.05
- Potential profit
- $80.05
- User PnL
- -$11.94
Yes position
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $9.75
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $65.25
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- $1.75
Y
Yes position
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $20.47
- Potential payout
- $65
- Potential profit
- $44.52
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$1.12
Y
Yes position
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $10.4
- Potential payout
- $64.98
- Potential profit
- $54.58
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Y
Yes position
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $11
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $39
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$9.8
Y
Yes position
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $6
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $44
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.33
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $380.02
Yes position
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 4%
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- $345.5
Yes position
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- $235.71
Yes position
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- $168.76
No position
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $126.03
No position
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $96.22
Yes position
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2%
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- $82.1
No position
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $75.32
No position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $66.76
No position
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Oct 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $56.79
Yes position
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $47.09
No position
Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $37.06
Yes position
Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $25.57
No position
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $24.7
Yes position
Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.67
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- $20.41
No position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.79
No position
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.98
No position
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $15.8
Yes position
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.75
No position
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $10.5
Yes position
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.46
No position
Will François Briançon be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Karim Bouamrane be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 6% 23.13 shares
- Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.5% 600 shares
- Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares
- Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 0.6% 600 shares