No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $2.04K
- Potential payout
- $2.72K
- Potential profit
- $678.79
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- $821.18
Polymarket Trader
p0laris
0xafa7c29727630c2801583314c9a13c65030d2cee
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.57K
- Realized PnL
- $3.9K
- Win rate
- 41.2%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $536
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.06K
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $171.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.3K
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $800.92
Yes position
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $350.97
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.44
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.83
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.4
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.5
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$101.06
No position
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$158.9
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$190.61
No position
Claude 4.7 released by April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$255.87
No position
Claude 4.7 released by April 17?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$268.12
No position
Claude 4.7 released by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$289.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 41.2% 843 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 60.5% 321.07 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 63% 91.16 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 79.1% 188.36 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 75.5% 287.46 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 42.3% 60 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 65% 53.84 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Yes 46% 6.11 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Yes 45% 100 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Yes 67% 202.14 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Yes 41.3% 180.29 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No 80% 20 shares