Polymarket Trader

semilaks

0xafe989579017965dcb890d263b056d8a9f5e0a3e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $410.28
Realized PnL: $109.33
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 4
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $344.28
Potential payout: $1.44K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 4.18x
User PnL: -$55.71

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $32.19
Potential payout: $221.24
Potential profit: $189.05
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: $7.19

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 15.7%
Current value: $32.6
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $175.73
Multiplier: 6.39x
User PnL: $12.6

Yes position

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.56
Potential profit: $192.56
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $104.38
Potential profit: $103.18
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$8.8

Yes position

Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.39
Potential profit: $48.39
User PnL: -$15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Argentina position

Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.43

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.71

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.78

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 9.6% 208.33 shares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 24% 417.19 shares
Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will France win on 2026-06-30?

60.2% 164.08 shares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 28.7% 348.93 shares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 32.9% 304.28 shares
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

Argentina 42% 71.43 shares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 27.2% 367.11 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

No 18% 27.78 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

No 28% 35.71 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

No 34% 29.41 shares
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?

Yes 11% 90.91 shares
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?

Yes 7.8% 192.56 shares