Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.98K
- Potential profit
- $4.98K
- User PnL
- -$75.38
Polymarket Trader
predictordeniz
0xb07de28fd176a4cf2ebabe56365fdf22202b23dc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $293.03
- Realized PnL
- $8.85K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.69K
- Potential profit
- $2.69K
- User PnL
- -$45.69
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- User PnL
- -$145.58
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $767.98
- Potential profit
- $767.98
- User PnL
- -$114.28
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $732.86
- Potential profit
- $732.86
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 9?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $564.92
- Potential profit
- $564.92
- User PnL
- -$35.21
Yes position
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19?
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 9?
Ends May 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $424.5
- Potential profit
- $424.5
- User PnL
- -$3.05
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $292.45
- Potential payout
- $292.89
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- User PnL
- $200.77
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.58
- Potential payout
- $290
- Potential profit
- $289.42
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$28.42
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $229.97
- Potential profit
- $229.97
- User PnL
- -$2.94
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $227.73
- Potential profit
- $227.73
- User PnL
- -$17.82
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200.18
- Potential profit
- $200.18
- User PnL
- -$39.77
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 14?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $162
- Potential profit
- $162
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $160.4
- Potential profit
- $160.4
- User PnL
- -$7.39
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $127.79
- Potential profit
- $127.79
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120.11
- Potential profit
- $120.11
- User PnL
- -$15.41
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $118.02
- Potential profit
- $118.02
- User PnL
- -$2.34
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115.2
- Potential profit
- $115.2
- User PnL
- -$48.22
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.67
- Potential profit
- $111.67
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $104.17
- Potential profit
- $104.17
- User PnL
- -$3.04
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $103
- Potential profit
- $103
- User PnL
- -$5.83
No position
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$10.76
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$26.54
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on May 14?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $97.44
- Potential profit
- $97.44
- User PnL
- -$10.48
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $81.65
- Potential profit
- $81.65
- User PnL
- -$21.89
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C or higher on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80.38
- Potential profit
- $80.38
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75.91
- Potential profit
- $75.91
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on May 14?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $74.61
- Potential profit
- $74.61
- User PnL
- -$24.63
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.4
- Potential profit
- $71.4
- User PnL
- -$1.67
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $63.9
- Potential profit
- $63.9
- User PnL
- -$5.9
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.83
- Potential profit
- $55.83
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.22
- Potential profit
- $53.22
- User PnL
- -$1.52
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.1
- Potential profit
- $52.1
- User PnL
- -$1.27
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.8
- Potential profit
- $45.8
- User PnL
- -$2.47
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.1
- Potential profit
- $43.1
- User PnL
- -$1.34
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 6?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.61
- Potential profit
- $35.61
- User PnL
- -$13.83
Yes position
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $35
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C or higher on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32
- Potential profit
- $32
- User PnL
- -$1.27
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.74
- Potential profit
- $30.74
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.62
- Potential profit
- $30.62
- User PnL
- -$4.43
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 14?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$2.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.65
- Potential profit
- $28.65
- User PnL
- -$8.43
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.74
- Potential profit
- $26.74
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.48
- Potential profit
- $21.48
- User PnL
- -$1.49
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.3
- Potential profit
- $21.3
- User PnL
- -$2.65
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Grok remain the #1 model through March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $961.75
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $768.04
No position
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $515.05
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $482.64
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 30-39 tweets on September 12, 2025?
Ends Sep 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $399.59
Yes position
No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?
Ends Oct 20, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.27
Yes position
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?
Ends Nov 2, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.47
No position
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Ends Oct 11, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211.88
No position
Israel military response against Iran in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $211.38
Yes position
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-23?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.69
Yes position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.97
No position
Will o3-mini be better than DeepSeek before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $187.38
No position
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?
Ends Oct 18, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.38
Yes position
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.4
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.32
No position
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.58
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $114.43
No position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.07
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $104.27
Yes position
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.05
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?
Ends Dec 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $100.13
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
Ends Jan 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.95
Yes position
Will Trump say "Pennsylvania" in his speech after the election is called?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.9
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.75
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.53
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday?
Ends Dec 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.28
Yes position
Will Trump say "trans" during Univision town hall?
Ends Oct 16, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.09
Yes position
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $84.9
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.82
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.02
Yes position
Will Trump say "weave" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?
Ends Nov 2, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.21
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.93
Yes position
Will GPT-4.5 be released by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.99
No position
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.92
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $65.78
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $64.85
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $64.1
Yes position
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-03-08?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.9
No position
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.54
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.98
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $55.32
No position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.99
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 6?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.27
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.34
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.22
No position
Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday?
Ends Nov 6, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.05
Yes position
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $48.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19?Yes 10% 290 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?Yes 31.3% 292.89 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18?Yes 29% 9.04 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18?Yes 46% 12.28 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?Yes 41.9% 115.2 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15?Yes 91.1% 116.28 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15?Yes 22% 23 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15?Yes 21.2% 93.28 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14?Yes 95% 153.34 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14?Yes 18% 72.78 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14?Yes 16.9% 46 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14?Yes 26.5% 100 shares