No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $8.29K
- Potential payout
- $8.39K
- Potential profit
- $104.9
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $969.18
Polymarket Trader
lightup001
0xb092d86834660348f824cf46438e0e1d22f108fd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $14.8K
- Realized PnL
- $7.21K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $5.92K
- Potential payout
- $6.84K
- Potential profit
- $923.93
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$123.92
Y
Yes position
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 44%
- Current value
- $220.74
- Potential payout
- $501.68
- Potential profit
- $280.94
- Multiplier
- 2.27x
- User PnL
- $84.66
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $370.08
- Potential payout
- $422.95
- Potential profit
- $52.87
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $35.1
Yes position
Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65
- Potential profit
- $65
- User PnL
- -$3.51
Y
Yes position
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $4.19
- Potential payout
- $17.46
- Potential profit
- $13.27
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.53
- Potential profit
- $12.53
- User PnL
- -$9.52
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
No position
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $543.07
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $457.06
No position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $330.37
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $328.57
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.05
Yes position
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.87
No position
Starmer out by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148.76
Yes position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.33
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.7
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.24
No position
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.64
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $71.02
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.81
No position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.53
Yes position
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.55
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.92
Yes position
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $24.91
Yes position
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.33
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of April 20 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.06
Yes position
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.69
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes 28.6% 17.46 shares
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 31% 30 shares
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 31.9% 56.93 shares
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 41.5% 269.75 shares
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 46% 80 shares
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 47% 30 shares
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 49% 20 shares
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 50% 15 shares
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 32.6% 28 shares
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 26.8% 134.72 shares
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?Yes 25.2% 252.03 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?No 98.6% 112.9 shares