No position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40.78K
- Potential profit
- $40.78K
- User PnL
- -$4.88K
Polymarket Trader
554m
0xb11997a4f89efb15246d5f429320275fd157f8cd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.39K
- Realized PnL
- $12.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.7K
- Potential profit
- $15.7K
- User PnL
- -$32.08
Yes position
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.28K
- Potential profit
- $9.28K
- User PnL
- -$3.89K
Yes position
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.22K
- Potential profit
- $7.22K
- User PnL
- -$1.24K
Yes position
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.59K
- Potential profit
- $6.59K
- User PnL
- -$2.5K
Yes position
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $4K
- User PnL
- -$2.66K
Yes position
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.67K
- Potential profit
- $3.67K
- User PnL
- -$391.25
Yes position
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.65K
- Potential profit
- $3.65K
- User PnL
- -$639.72
Yes position
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 18.8%
- Current value
- $681.7
- Potential payout
- $3.63K
- Potential profit
- $2.94K
- Multiplier
- 5.32x
- User PnL
- -$1.98K
Yes position
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.17K
- Potential profit
- $3.17K
- User PnL
- -$916.63
Yes position
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 65.5%
- Current value
- $1.31K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $690
- Multiplier
- 1.53x
- User PnL
- $270
Yes position
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.62K
- Potential profit
- $1.62K
- User PnL
- -$104.34
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- User PnL
- -$56.64
No position
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $910
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $90
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $190
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999
- Potential profit
- $999
- User PnL
- -$7.76
Yes position
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $154.55
- Potential payout
- $858.59
- Potential profit
- $704.05
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$403.54
Yes position
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $745.23
- Potential profit
- $745.23
- User PnL
- -$126.69
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $703.85
- Potential profit
- $703.85
- User PnL
- -$179.84
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $655.91
- Potential profit
- $655.91
- User PnL
- -$85.27
Yes position
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $88.27
- Potential payout
- $569.49
- Potential profit
- $481.22
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$219.25
No position
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $246
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $54
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $123
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 19?
Ends Jan 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $299.9
- Potential profit
- $299.9
- User PnL
- -$8.79
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $291.5
- Potential profit
- $291.5
- User PnL
- -$78.71
Yes position
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $221.16
- Potential profit
- $221.16
- User PnL
- -$22.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62K
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59K
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 25?
Ends Dec 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
No position
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $790.32
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 20?
Ends Dec 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $771.75
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $725.06
Lakers position
Lakers vs. Jazz
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $686.53
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 24?
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $624.79
Yes position
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $466.4
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 18?
Ends Dec 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $456.38
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 17?
Ends Dec 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $374.91
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $275.84
No position
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $260
No position
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.35
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.83
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.4
No position
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12?
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.2
Yes position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.99
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.47
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.76
Yes position
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.56
No position
Will Solana reach $160 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.09
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?Yes 50% 6.03 shares
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 9% 22.73 shares
- StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 9% 250 shares
- Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 13% 300 shares
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Yes 66% 10 shares
- Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?No 67% 28 shares
- Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes 7% 189.61 shares
- EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?No 87% 50 shares
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?No 43% 240 shares
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 16% 15.59 shares
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 16% 50 shares
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 16.2% 100 shares