Polymarket Trader

kvinster

0xb17116d701c3539d3a88a3956b0225c8d82aa647

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $637.54
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $19.74
Potential payout: $438.75
Potential profit: $419.01
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$30.26

Yes position

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $30.46
Potential payout: $392.99
Potential profit: $362.54
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: -$19.54

No position

GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $303.65
Potential profit: $303.65
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $292.34
Potential profit: $291.02
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$48.68

Yes position

Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $2.18
Potential payout: $290.31
Potential profit: $288.14
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$47.82

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $279.6
Potential payout: $279.6
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $79.61

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $248.88
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$48.87

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 9.8%
Current value: $22.16
Potential payout: $227.27
Potential profit: $205.11
Multiplier: 10.26x
User PnL: -$77.84

Yes position

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $165.12
Potential profit: $163.8
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$48.68

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150.04
Potential profit: $150.04
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $145.66
Potential payout: $147.06
Potential profit: $1.4
User PnL: $45.66

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $131.58
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $81.58

No position

Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.13
Potential profit: $105.13
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.6
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: -$47.6

No position

Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $86.21
Potential profit: $86.21
User PnL: -$50

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

No 71.8% 139.34 shares
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

No 47.6% 105.13 shares
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 17.2% 290.31 shares
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Yes 11.4% 438.75 shares
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Yes 12.7% 392.99 shares
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

No 50% 100 shares
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 30.3% 165.12 shares
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

No 68% 147.06 shares
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?

No 58% 86.21 shares
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 44% 227.27 shares
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?

No 16.5% 303.65 shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 17.1% 292.34 shares