Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $14.6
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $5.4
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Polymarket Trader
lopiii
0xb1b196e879c49bd91c2fa17211cfbf96f98ebc53
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $14.6
- Realized PnL
- $12.85
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Y
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $3.9
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 20?
Ends May 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
Y
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?
Ends Jul 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70–71°F on May 16?
Ends May 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.94
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64–65°F on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.74
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 19?
Ends May 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.48
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67–68°F on May 20?
Ends May 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 25?
Ends May 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.24
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down on May 22?
Ends May 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
Up position
ETH/BTC Up or Down on May 12?
Ends May 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Down position
XRP Up or Down on May 23?
Ends May 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Up position
XRP Up or Down on May 22?
Ends May 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?
Ends May 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70–71°F on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on May 17?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74–75°F on May 18?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 16?
Ends May 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?
Ends May 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?
Ends May 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 74% 20 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes 86% 15 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 76% 15 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?Yes 79% 15 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 50% 15 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Dubai be between 101-102°F on May 31?No 4% 3.29 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Dubai be between 101-102°F on May 31?No 91% 3.3 shares
- Ethereum Up or Down on May 28?Down 97% 3 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27?Down 87% 3.45 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26?Up 99.8% 5.91 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 25?No 94.2% 6.26 shares
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 65–66°F on May 25?No 90% 6.27 shares