Polymarket Trader

Kierian

@KierianV

0xb1fdbacd68776f544b5bca17343becd207dbfb44

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $500.31
Realized PnL: -$31.13
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $988.5
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$8.5

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $108.33
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $447.22
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $8.33

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.1%
Current value: $88.34
Potential payout: $518.13
Potential profit: $429.79
Multiplier: 5.87x
User PnL: -$11.66

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $428.57
Potential profit: $428.57
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $370.37
Potential profit: $370.37
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 35.2%
Current value: $118.67
Potential payout: $337.62
Potential profit: $218.95
Multiplier: 2.84x
User PnL: $38.68

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $30.25
Potential payout: $246.91
Potential profit: $216.67
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$9.75

Yes position

Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $217.92
Potential profit: $217.92
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $7.18
Potential payout: $214.29
Potential profit: $207.11
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: $4.18

Yes position

Will Binance be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $192.31
Potential profit: $192.31
User PnL: -$5

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $103.29
Potential payout: $131.58
Potential profit: $28.29
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $3.29

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.38
Potential profit: $115.38
User PnL: -$3

NRG position

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.04
Potential profit: $102.04
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$5

No position

Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $32.75
Potential payout: $53.25
Potential profit: $20.5
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$1.86

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.41

Yes position

Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.8

Yes position

Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.91

No position

Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.36

Yes position

Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.96

Yes position

Football.Fun FDV above $70M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.32

Yes position

Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27?

Ends Dec 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.32

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Multiplier: 39.22x
User PnL: $5.1

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27?

Ends Dec 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.08

Yes position

Over $12M committed to the Space public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.57

No position

Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.31

No position

VOOI FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.74

Yes position

Will Tria launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

No position

Will Zama launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.63

No position

Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 65.5%
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14?

Ends Dec 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.96

No position

Will Fogo launch a token by March 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$15.16

Yes position

Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$22.38

No position

Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$31.67

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$53.73

Yes position

Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$90

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 18% 555.56 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 76% 131.58 shares
Paraguay vs. France: Both Teams to Score

No 65% 53.25 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19.3% 518.13 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 6% 1,187.75 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 32.8% 152.44 shares
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026?

No 8% 60.6 shares
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.3% 3,482.6 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 11.8% 466.1 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.4% 370.37 shares
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 3.6% 982.6 shares
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.1% 3,000 shares