Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $673.33
- Potential profit
- $673.33
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
0xb2306ED8F1d6b2aCf00e8FE556ED2eB06434e488-1765855781411
0xb2306ed8f1d6b2acf00e8fe556ed2eb06434e488
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $37.35
- Realized PnL
- $334.48
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $5.37
- Potential payout
- $243.9
- Potential profit
- $238.54
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$14.63
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $232.57
- Potential profit
- $232.57
- User PnL
- -$26.87
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $220.69
- Potential profit
- $220.69
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $189.88
- Potential profit
- $189.88
- User PnL
- -$15.19
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $145.38
- Potential profit
- $145.38
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140.4
- Potential profit
- $140.4
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $7.94
- Potential payout
- $134.5
- Potential profit
- $126.56
- Multiplier
- 16.95x
- User PnL
- -$2.06
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $24.04
- Potential payout
- $109.54
- Potential profit
- $85.5
- Multiplier
- 4.56x
- User PnL
- $4.19
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.83
Yes position
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $39.21
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36.57
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.03
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.97
Yes position
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.65
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.1
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.03
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.01
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.68
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.96
No position
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.33
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $4.11
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.75
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
Yes position
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.51
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.06
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.6
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.05
No position
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.34
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$6.25
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.55
Yes position
GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.26
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?Yes 7.4% 134.5 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Yes 18.1% 109.54 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 71.8% 40 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 50% 40 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 2.9% 300 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 5% 300 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 24.7% 56.3 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 26.6% 56.3 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 13.8% 166.66 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 9% 166.67 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 32% 62.3 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 3.9% 167.78 shares