Polymarket Trader

ArnoldSmith

0xb2a0f627ce4bd1e39d87839ab59bc1e762fdf094

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $76.99
Realized PnL: $203.16
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.89
Potential profit: $100.89
User PnL: -$41.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$3.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$36.4

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.54
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.46
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$44.46

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$6.18

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $74.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $25.55
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $35.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $95
User PnL: -$8.46

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $95
User PnL: -$33.35

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $95
User PnL: -$31.82

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$4.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.89

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.2

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.56

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 9?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

No position

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 9?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on May 9?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or below on May 9?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or higher on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 12?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on May 16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be 65°F or below on May 12?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 47% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 38.7% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Yes 6.2% 100 shares
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on June 15?

No 99.9% 30.03 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Yes 29.1% 50 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Yes 64.5% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Yes 0.3% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Yes 3.1% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Yes 9.4% 45 shares
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Yes 9.1% 5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Yes 15.3% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Yes 24% 100 shares