oxb2a309A61ca9eD5DB26e9FDDa3a19fF4aE3a79e0

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $366.74
Potential profit: $366.19
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$50.76

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $4.62
Potential payout: $93.37
Potential profit: $88.75
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $1.08

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $10.91
Potential payout: $66.13
Potential profit: $55.22
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $1.47

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $4.45
Potential payout: $43.16
Potential profit: $38.71
Multiplier: 9.71x
User PnL: -$1.72

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $41.76
Potential profit: $41.57
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$12.4

Yes position

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $8.99
Potential payout: $35.95
Potential profit: $26.96
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: $0.66

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $30.23
Potential payout: $30.5
Potential profit: $0.27
User PnL: $7.57

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $28.44
Potential payout: $28.6
Potential profit: $0.16
User PnL: $1.84

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $3.77
Potential payout: $26.03
Potential profit: $22.26
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$8.87

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $15.58
Potential payout: $25.34
Potential profit: $9.76
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $6.46

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.67
Potential profit: $21.67
User PnL: -$5.2

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $4.08
Potential payout: $20.95
Potential profit: $16.86
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$7.77

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $13.69
Potential payout: $16.8
Potential profit: $3.11
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $2.29

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $14.53
Potential payout: $15.32
Potential profit: $0.79
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $9.63
Potential payout: $11.27
Potential profit: $1.63
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $8.65
Potential profit: $8.57
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.82
Potential profit: $7.82
User PnL: -$1.33

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Current value: $6.73
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $0.41
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $7.07
Potential payout: $7.1
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $7.05
Potential payout: $7.07
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $5.23
Potential profit: $5.18
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$2.2

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $4
Potential payout: $5.2
Potential profit: $1.2
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $1.65

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $3.45
Potential payout: $5.14
Potential profit: $1.7
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $5.09
Potential payout: $5.14
Potential profit: $0.05
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.54

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.59

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.78

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.69

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.37

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.16

Yes position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.53

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: May

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.48

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.12

Yes position

Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.93

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86

Yes position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.91

No position

Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.7

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.7

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.61

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?