Polymarket Trader

morsels

0xb2e948debc90b6db84f766708cce8916cf610571

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $118.3
Realized PnL: $8.75
Win rate: 26.3%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 19
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.69
Potential profit: $136.69
User PnL: -$3.44

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $77.31
Potential profit: $77.31
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $66.67
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $64.67

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $36.84
Potential payout: $43.34
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $33.84

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.19
Potential profit: $34.19
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will Hillary say "White House" during her Epstein testimony?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.11
Potential profit: $23.11
User PnL: -$2.56

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.25
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $11.36
Potential payout: $11.36
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $10.11

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.62
Potential profit: $10.62
User PnL: -$1.38

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.13
Potential profit: $8.13
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.25
Potential profit: $7.25
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 20-21°F on March 17?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.25
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Ends Mar 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.89
Potential profit: $5.89
User PnL: -$1

No position

Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $1.68
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $4.21
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $0.68

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $0.66
Potential payout: $5.77
Potential profit: $5.11
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $5.26
Potential profit: $4.92
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.66

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.62

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.28

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.38

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.52

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Nicaragua position

First Round Pool D: Nicaragua vs. Venezuela

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.46

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.9

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Yes 0.4% 10 shares
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Yes 10% 12.5 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Yes 11% 11.36 shares
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Yes 15% 10 shares
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 6% and 9%?

Yes 13% 10.62 shares
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Yes 10.8% 50 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Yes 19% 5.26 shares
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?

No 17% 5.88 shares
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Yes 12.3% 10.61 shares
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Yes 2% 50 shares
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes 8% 17.36 shares
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Yes 9% 21.36 shares