No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $1.03K
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $95.63
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $79.38
Polymarket Trader
BlackSwan-798
0xb33741afcbadbb21d3b71a785478b3263dd5d068
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.03K
- Realized PnL
- $454.62
- Win rate
- 47.8%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $670.96
- Potential profit
- $670.96
- User PnL
- -$46.45
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$2.99
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $341.5
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.35
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
No position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.24
Yes position
Will Apple invest in OpenAI in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.92
Girl position
Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.99
Yes position
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9
No position
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Will Trump say "golf" during Pennsylvania rally?
Ends Oct 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Yes position
Doge ETF approved in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.7
Yes position
US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.3
Yes position
U.S. military action against Iran before November?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will there be another debate?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.9
Yes position
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.9
No position
European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?
Ends Oct 17, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.4
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 10.5% 95.64 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 1% 100 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 86% 100 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 8.8% 23.92 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 80% 125 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 6.2% 551.41 shares
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No 94% 1,100.38 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No 7% 200 shares
- Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl?Girl 99.9% 399.89 shares
- Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl?Girl 97.9% 399.9 shares
- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?No 86.3% 1,100.39 shares
- Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?Yes 10.7% 468.88 shares