Polymarket Trader

tiagomvr2

0xb3607046f295f43f790e9e5e85d812907f9cd73e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.12K
Realized PnL: $942.95
Win rate: 70.8%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 76.9%
Current value: $7.92K
Potential payout: $10.31K
Potential profit: $2.39K
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $1.01K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.12K
Potential profit: $2.12K
User PnL: -$1.63K

Yes position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 12.6%
Current value: $166.34
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 7.97x
User PnL: $66.34

Yes position

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $3.72
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $19.53
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$6.28

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $17.53
Potential payout: $17.53
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $12.27

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.28
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$1.17

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $3.24
Potential payout: $7.62
Potential profit: $4.38
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.54
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$0.66

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $2.73
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.61

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $2.99
Potential profit: $0.28
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.28

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $2.65
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $2.5
Potential profit: $2.26
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $701.44

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.18

No position

Will anyone audibly fart during Trump's WEF 2026 speech?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.5

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $450–475 in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.66

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 12?

Ends Dec 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.11

No position

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.96

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425–450 in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.88

Yes position

Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 92.5%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.8

Yes position

Maduro out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.38

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 20?

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 22?

Ends Dec 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.86

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8?

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 67.3% 2,840.84 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 67% 4,499.66 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 67% 5.97 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 67% 2,936.36 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 65.7% 27.03 shares
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?

Yes 68% 27.15 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Yes 30% 17.53 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 52% 7.62 shares
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?

No 98.9% 4 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No 81% 2.99 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Down 53% 235.63 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Down 6.2% 161.51 shares