Polymarket Trader

kerakles

0xb38ea393a17280ebcfd9be6b47b161d5cdb8272b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $25.81
Realized PnL: $2.28K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88K
Potential profit: $5.88K
User PnL: -$16.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.24K
Potential profit: $1.24K
User PnL: -$1.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.22K
Potential profit: $1.22K
User PnL: -$1.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.98
Potential profit: $999.98
User PnL: -$3.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.97
Potential profit: $999.97
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C or higher on June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $946
Potential profit: $944.58
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $902.38
Potential profit: $902.38
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $806.35
Potential profit: $806.35
User PnL: -$3.61

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.3
Potential profit: $666.3
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.32
Potential payout: $639.53
Potential profit: $639.21
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.55
Potential payout: $618.18
Potential profit: $616.63
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $611.11
Potential profit: $610.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $8.04
Potential payout: $535.7
Potential profit: $527.67
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$3.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $3.94
Potential payout: $525.11
Potential profit: $521.17
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C or below on June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $499.97
Potential profit: $499.22
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $8.22
Potential payout: $456.68
Potential profit: $448.46
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: $3.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $409.53
Potential profit: $409.53
User PnL: -$6.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $401.35
Potential profit: $401.15
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $382.86
Potential profit: $382.67
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.81

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $353.87
Potential profit: $353.87
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $297.15
Potential profit: $297.15
User PnL: -$9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250.15
Potential profit: $250.15
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.89
Potential payout: $222.22
Potential profit: $221.33
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $379.52

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $295.76

Yes position

Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.38

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $200.78

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.94

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 80°F or higher on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $153.33

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.31

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $80.58

Yes position

Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.21

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.86

No position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.88

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $44.11

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.75

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.97

Yes position

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.35

No position

Will Iran strike Oman in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.28

Yes position

Will the US strike Syria next?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.55

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.71

Yes position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.98

Yes position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 10, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.1

Yes position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.34

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 23?

Yes 2.9% 34.24 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22?

Yes 7.1% 42.14 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21?

Yes 0.4% 239.72 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22?

Yes 2.1% 48.42 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21?

Yes 0.2% 439.53 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21?

Yes 1.8% 17.73 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 0.1% 2,000 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 0.1% 2,000 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 0.2% 500 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 22?

Yes 2% 50 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21?

Yes 4.6% 43.9 shares
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 21?

Yes 0.9% 106.45 shares