No position
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $1.31K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $91
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $609
Polymarket Trader
miaoxiaojie
0xb3c8a39ff43cb21b6a18f2e9a5fa30f3a8032e5a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.8K
- Realized PnL
- -$568.69
- Win rate
- 46.7%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 15
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $91
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.31K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$609
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $316.09
- Potential payout
- $866
- Potential profit
- $549.91
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- $6.77
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $536.79
- Potential payout
- $572.58
- Potential profit
- $35.79
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.43
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $501
- Potential profit
- $501
- User PnL
- -$34.57
Yes position
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $137.6
- Potential payout
- $160
- Potential profit
- $22.4
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$3.2
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $135.75
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $14.25
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $9.75
No position
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $80.37
- Potential payout
- $137.38
- Potential profit
- $57.01
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$1.27
Yes position
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $88.35
- Potential payout
- $114
- Potential profit
- $25.65
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $1.71
No position
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $64.09
- Potential payout
- $66
- Potential profit
- $1.91
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 64%
- Current value
- $16.36
- Potential payout
- $25.57
- Potential profit
- $9.21
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- -$3.07
No position
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $21.5
- Potential payout
- $23.5
- Potential profit
- $2
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.29
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.54
Yes position
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $7.37
Yes position
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.8%
- Multiplier
- 4.20x
- User PnL
- $4.43
Yes position
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.2
Yes position
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.43
Yes position
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.66
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.46
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$10.64
Yes position
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$17.03
Yes position
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$17.78
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$22.3
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$549.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Yes 24.4% 6.57 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 25% 85 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 36% 519.38 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Yes 2.1% 325.23 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Yes 3.3% 20.91 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 37% 400 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 29% 300 shares
- Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 0.1% 8,892 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 36% 924.8 shares
- Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 0.3% 8,892 shares
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes 76% 25.57 shares
- Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?No 97% 66 shares