Yes position
Will the US strike Iran next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.03K
- Potential profit
- $2.03K
- User PnL
- -$4
Polymarket Trader
Daniel96
0xb3e3777e502d15ae81b1c29253f64d752a0391ba
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.94
- Realized PnL
- $9.24
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US strike Syria next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.05
- Potential profit
- $19.05
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.6
- Potential profit
- $2.6
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: January
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.75
- Potential profit
- $1.75
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.72
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.56
- Potential profit
- $1.56
- User PnL
- -$1
Israel position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $1.56
- Potential profit
- $0.78
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.22
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.49
- Potential profit
- $1.49
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.47
- Potential profit
- $1.47
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.16
- Potential payout
- $1.16
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.16
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
GTA 6 launch postponed?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51
Yes position
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 14 than day before?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.93
Yes position
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.84
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
Yes position
Bitcoin all time high by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
Yes position
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
No position
IDF Chief Eyal Zamir out by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will Israel carry out an airstrike on the West Bank by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
2025 August third hottest on record?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will US or Israel strike Iran first?Israel 64% 1.56 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Yes 38.4% 2.6 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes 99.7% 3.57 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes 28% 3.57 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 60% 1.66 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 60% 1.67 shares
- Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?Yes 86% 1.16 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiNo 45% 4.54 shares
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes 10.5% 9.52 shares
- Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes 10.5% 9.52 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiNo 43% 2.33 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiNo 45% 2.22 shares