rando12345

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $4.19K
Potential payout: $101K
Potential profit: $96.81K
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: $4.05K

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.3%
Current value: $11.63K
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $38.38K
Multiplier: 4.30x
User PnL: -$13.38K

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 76.8%
Current value: $38.38K
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $11.63K
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: $13.38K

Yes position

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $2.44K
Potential payout: $4.93K
Potential profit: $2.49K
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $71.55

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $57.63
Potential payout: $3.12K
Potential profit: $3.06K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$157.51

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $2.14K
Potential payout: $2.2K
Potential profit: $64.9
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $626.38

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $440
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.56K
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$365.13

No position

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $47
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.95K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $11

No position

USDE depeg by December 31?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.22K
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $98.74
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $118.82

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $651.57
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $601.45
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: -$3.86

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $830.11
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $399.68
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: -$42.25

No position

Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.17K
User PnL: -$262.93

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $956.73
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $202.94
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $32.19

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $704.98
Potential payout: $999.97
Potential profit: $294.99
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$15

No position

DAI depeg by December 31?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $572.37
Potential payout: $615.45
Potential profit: $43.08
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $177.29

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $543.41
Potential payout: $560.22
Potential profit: $16.81
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $49.06

No position

Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $470.28
Potential profit: $470.28
User PnL: -$64.03

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $56 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $448.91
Potential payout: $455.05
Potential profit: $6.14
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $221.38

No position

USD0 depeg by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $365.11
Potential payout: $437.26
Potential profit: $72.15
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $36.36

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $207.38
Potential payout: $418.95
Potential profit: $211.57
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $6.28

No position

GHO depeg by December 31?

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $347.43
Potential payout: $394.8
Potential profit: $47.38
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $72.31

No position

Will Ethena dip to $0.04 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $145.71
Potential payout: $338.86
Potential profit: $193.15
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$24

No position

Will Ethena reach $0.60 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $255.38
Potential payout: $279.1
Potential profit: $23.72
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $11.32

No position

Will Ethena reach $0.44 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $184.14
Potential payout: $221.86
Potential profit: $37.72
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Ethereum all time high by September 30?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.04K

No position

Will Ethereum reach $5000 August 25–31?

Ends Sep 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.4K

Yes position

Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.15K

Yes position

Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.05K

No position

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.63K

No position

Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.44K

Yes position

Ethereum all time high by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.36K

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3K

Yes position

Ethereum all time high by October 31?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.05K

Yes position

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.97K

No position

Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92K

No position

Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $970

No position

Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $867.42

Yes position

Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $862.65

No position

Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $861.84

Yes position

Ethereum flipped in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $860.22

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $814.28

Yes position

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in March?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $752.75

Yes position

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $714.52

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $699.97

No position

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $694.1

No position

Will Ethereum reach $5400 August 25–31?

Ends Sep 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $612.59

No position

Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $562.01

No position

Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?