Polymarket Trader

Llioncurt

0xb4014f36969c0b37dab64f6b07bf749c3c709c2e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $212.43
Realized PnL: $202.15
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $2.29
Potential payout: $285.86
Potential profit: $283.57
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$97.71

Levante UD position

Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $143.43
Potential profit: $143.43
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $100.2
Potential payout: $110.71
Potential profit: $10.52
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $7.2

No position

Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 86.2%
Current value: $86.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $13.8
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $6.2

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $7.33
Potential payout: $52.94
Potential profit: $45.61
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $16.41
Potential payout: $38.62
Potential profit: $22.2
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$3.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.67
Potential profit: $11.67
User PnL: -$0.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.12
Potential profit: $9.12
User PnL: -$3.83

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.63

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.81

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.76

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.37

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.21

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.76

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.14

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

No position

Barstool After Dark: Will the crew bowl a 300?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

Israel position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-04?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.06

Yes position

Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 17% 52.94 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

No 35% 285.86 shares
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?

No 80% 100 shares
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)

Levante UD 13.9% 143.43 shares
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

No 99.4% 82.49 shares
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?

Yes 77% 129.81 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 52% 38.62 shares
Barstool After Dark: Will the crew bowl a 300?

No 97% 20.08 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Yes 26% 75 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

No 89% 183.75 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Down 38% 5.03 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Down 47% 4.09 shares