Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $17.55
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $282.45
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- $1.2
Polymarket Trader
protarus
0xb4089400e90f92b62f2e20111df6e04a60f5fcb1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $555.1
- Realized PnL
- $583.83
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.9%
- Current value
- $24.75
- Potential payout
- $249.99
- Potential profit
- $225.24
- Multiplier
- 10.10x
- User PnL
- -$41.18
Yes position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $6.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $193.7
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$19
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.2%
- Current value
- $8.15
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $91.85
- Multiplier
- 12.27x
- User PnL
- $0.15
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $6
- Potential payout
- $79.99
- Potential profit
- $73.99
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$12.38
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $79.84
- Potential payout
- $79.96
- Potential profit
- $0.12
- User PnL
- $8.61
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $65.97
- Potential payout
- $75.4
- Potential profit
- $9.42
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $11.06
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $41.99
- Potential payout
- $69.99
- Potential profit
- $28
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $3.4
No position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.3%
- Current value
- $46.89
- Potential payout
- $55
- Potential profit
- $8.11
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$1.84
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $47.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $2.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.6
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $46.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $3.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $3.35
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $38.38
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $1.62
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.03
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $32
- Potential profit
- $31.89
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.91
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $26.85
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $3.15
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.35
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.23
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $29.78
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$2.38
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $29.78
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- User PnL
- $2.91
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $26.17
- Potential payout
- $26.24
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- User PnL
- $2.07
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $15.47
- Potential payout
- $26
- Potential profit
- $10.53
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$4.55
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.24
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $24.76
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $7.63
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $17.38
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$1.97
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.99
- Potential profit
- $24.99
- User PnL
- -$2.27
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $18.82
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $1.18
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.28
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $161.17
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.23
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.29
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.65
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $39.94
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.21
No position
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.93
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.29
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.71
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.73
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.66
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.38
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.99
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.81
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.38
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.93
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.54
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.25
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.85
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.31
Yes position
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- $6.09
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.8%
- Multiplier
- 6.78x
- User PnL
- $6.05
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.46
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 8% 45 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 4% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 31% 25 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 12% 40 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 81% 4.99 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 81% 15 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 88.6% 55 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 9.6% 50 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 98.4% 24.97 shares
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes 18% 7 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Yes 4.1% 35 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?No 93% 5 shares