Polymarket Trader

ecafrekop

0xb419b8ca025e77cbb87b305df33ef87f64f95a0c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $14.23
Realized PnL: $46.16
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 4
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in April 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in April 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in April 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in April 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $322.5
Potential profit: $322.5
User PnL: -$1.29

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $294.12
Potential profit: $294.12
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.7
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.7

Yes position

Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.08
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.56
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $124.44
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $6.41
Potential payout: $119.73
Potential profit: $113.32
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: $3.91

Yes position

Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.65
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.22
Potential profit: $79.22
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $3.79
Potential payout: $78.95
Potential profit: $75.16
Multiplier: 20.83x
User PnL: $0.79

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $60.81
Potential profit: $60.47
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$3.44

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 1?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.1
Potential profit: $57.1
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $48.1
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$3.1

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.18
Potential profit: $18.18
User PnL: -$4

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16
Potential profit: $16
User PnL: -$4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.33

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.25

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.42

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

No 25% 16 shares
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes 3.8% 78.95 shares
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 2.1% 119.73 shares
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 1% 100 shares
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 0.8% 125 shares
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 0.6% 166.67 shares
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 0.5% 200 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 6.2% 60.81 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 1.7% 294.12 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Yes 10% 50 shares
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in April 2026?

Yes 0.2% 500 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Yes 1% 100 shares