Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $95
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $105
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$1
Polymarket Trader
0xB451Ec5519a5BAC63DBFE593D6001Dd292C2467B-1775550064778
0xb451ec5519a5bac63dbfe593d6001dd292c2467b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $200.46
- Realized PnL
- $224.97
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $166.67
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $3.2
- Potential payout
- $101.51
- Potential profit
- $98.31
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Y
Yes position
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $4.67
- Potential payout
- $54.97
- Potential profit
- $50.3
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$17.5
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $12.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $37.75
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.99
- Potential profit
- $49.99
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Y
Yes position
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.43
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $45.02
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$4.57
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $13.01
- Potential payout
- $37.18
- Potential profit
- $24.17
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- -$1.12
No position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $0.53
- Potential payout
- $32.31
- Potential profit
- $31.78
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$1.53
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.2%
- Current value
- $3.3
- Potential payout
- $29.58
- Potential profit
- $26.28
- Multiplier
- 8.97x
- User PnL
- -$1.7
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 39.6%
- Current value
- $11.07
- Potential payout
- $27.99
- Potential profit
- $16.92
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.17
- Potential profit
- $27.17
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.44
- Potential profit
- $25.44
- User PnL
- -$4.99
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $14.28
- Potential payout
- $25.28
- Potential profit
- $11
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $14.02
- Potential payout
- $24.38
- Potential profit
- $10.36
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $0.93
- Potential payout
- $22.62
- Potential profit
- $21.69
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$4.05
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $15.95
- Potential payout
- $21.13
- Potential profit
- $5.18
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $1.8
Yes position
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.03
- Potential profit
- $20.03
- User PnL
- -$5.2
Yes position
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $5.06
- Potential payout
- $14.24
- Potential profit
- $9.18
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.91
- Potential profit
- $10.91
- User PnL
- -$5.13
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.8%
- Current value
- $2.47
- Potential payout
- $10.4
- Potential profit
- $7.93
- Multiplier
- 4.21x
- User PnL
- -$1.53
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $4.29
- Potential payout
- $8.18
- Potential profit
- $3.89
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.16
Yes position
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.61
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.08
Yes position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.53
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $14
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12
Yes position
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.67
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.85
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $6
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- $5.72
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.49
Y
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.23
Y
Yes position
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.62
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- $4.3
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
No position
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.95
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $3.87
Yes position
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.78
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?No 58% 18 shares
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?No 30% 20 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No 32% 50 shares
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?No 54% 20 shares
- Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?No 41% 19.97 shares
- Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 20 and 21 cents?Yes 32% 20 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Yes 29% 10 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?No 43.3% 49.97 shares
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes 29% 5 shares
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Yes 34% 49.97 shares
- Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No 68% 20 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes 77% 20 shares