Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $42.98
- Potential profit
- $42.31
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.33
Polymarket Trader
0xB45BeB8E8d4d010917c45641190798541c2D28F4-1768626492420
0xb45beb8e8d4d010917c45641190798541c2d28f4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $21.4
- Realized PnL
- $90.7
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.2%
- Current value
- $2.05
- Potential payout
- $39.81
- Potential profit
- $37.76
- Multiplier
- 19.42x
- User PnL
- -$4.14
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.25
- Potential profit
- $29.25
- User PnL
- -$6.8
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $2.29
- Potential payout
- $27.75
- Potential profit
- $25.46
- Multiplier
- 12.12x
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.39
- Potential profit
- $26.39
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $9.45
- Potential payout
- $18.18
- Potential profit
- $8.73
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.6
- Potential profit
- $12.6
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Discord IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.1%
- Current value
- $4.92
- Potential payout
- $7.92
- Potential profit
- $3
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $1.93
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $5.21
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.33
- Potential profit
- $2.33
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.22
- Potential profit
- $2.22
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $1.45
- Potential profit
- $1.36
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.91
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.2
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.28
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.36
No position
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.45
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.27
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.16
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.78
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.45
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.12
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05
Yes position
Will Trump say "Dog" in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 8% 16.13 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Yes 42% 1.61 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Yes 5.4% 12.5 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 5% 23.8 shares
- Discord IPO before 2027?Yes 63.2% 7.92 shares
- OpenAI IPO before 2027?Yes 55% 18.18 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 31.2% 16.01 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 43% 11.63 shares
- Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Yes 28.8% 18.39 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 60% 4.08 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 48.9% 4.09 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 4.7% 42.98 shares