Yes position
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.32K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
0xb492512c4425275Ef503331B628b9C9f627b12DA-1774212819041
0xb492512c4425275ef503331b628b9c9f627b12da
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $782.66
- Realized PnL
- $501.51
- Win rate
- 54.2%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.59K
- Potential profit
- $1.59K
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $104.64
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- Multiplier
- 12.05x
- User PnL
- $23.83
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $857.55
- Potential profit
- $857.55
- User PnL
- -$232.69
N
No position
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $214.2
- Potential payout
- $630
- Potential profit
- $415.8
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- -$34
No position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $133.93
- Potential payout
- $558.04
- Potential profit
- $424.11
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$149.96
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $23.92
- Potential payout
- $509.03
- Potential profit
- $485.11
- Multiplier
- 21.28x
- User PnL
- -$76.08
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $476.19
- Potential profit
- $476.19
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $460.43
- Potential profit
- $460.43
- User PnL
- -$197.98
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $160.95
- Potential payout
- $370
- Potential profit
- $209.05
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$42.55
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $128.7
- Potential payout
- $180
- Potential profit
- $51.3
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $31.5
No position
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $126.34
- Potential profit
- $126.34
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $117.45
- Potential profit
- $117.45
- User PnL
- -$10
Rockets position
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75.64
- Potential profit
- $75.64
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $71.43
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.41
- Potential profit
- $71.41
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $33.33
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $1.31
- Potential payout
- $26.53
- Potential profit
- $25.22
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- -$8.69
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.51
- Potential profit
- $13.51
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.26
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.93
No position
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.64
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.18
Yes position
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.28
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $40.15
Lakers position
Lakers vs. Rockets
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.8
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.88
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 78°F or higher on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.43
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 1?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.09
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 1?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.42
Valentin Vacherot position
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06
No position
Brex IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Multiplier
- 28.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.87
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 1?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ETDown 37% 13.51 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 6.6% 43.08 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 55% 370 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 53.1% 200 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?Yes 57% 350 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?No 29% 457.55 shares
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?No 51% 588.24 shares
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?No 50% 85 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?No 19.6% 509.02 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 97.4% 178.57 shares
- Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open?Yes 0.9% 1,586.68 shares
- Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?No 96.3% 179.33 shares