Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $562.96
- Potential payout
- $5.93K
- Potential profit
- $5.36K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$190.8
Polymarket Trader
company-Dropper
0xb4c000b7a3544cd54cbc2ebf46f7db67650ef333
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.81K
- Realized PnL
- $13.79K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $3.28K
- Potential payout
- $3.32K
- Potential profit
- $41.49
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $384.33
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $2.08K
- User PnL
- -$363.28
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- User PnL
- -$119.5
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- User PnL
- -$151.45
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $178.07
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $1.34K
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $46.22
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$291.61
Yes position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $1.31K
- Potential payout
- $1.41K
- Potential profit
- $98.74
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $95.45
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $100.03
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$8.85
No position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.3%
- Current value
- $987.52
- Potential payout
- $1.12K
- Potential profit
- $131.48
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$8.39
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $741.88
- Potential payout
- $745.98
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- User PnL
- $48.47
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $706.63
- Potential payout
- $737.23
- Potential profit
- $30.6
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $32.59
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $30.97
- Potential payout
- $563.1
- Potential profit
- $532.13
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$133.34
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499
- Potential profit
- $499
- User PnL
- -$104.55
Yes position
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $418.99
- Potential profit
- $418.99
- User PnL
- -$268.15
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $334.83
- Potential payout
- $335
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- User PnL
- $150.58
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $264.66
- Potential payout
- $305.96
- Potential profit
- $41.31
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $45.83
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.9%
- Current value
- $188.12
- Potential payout
- $219
- Potential profit
- $30.88
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $6.57
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $201
- Potential profit
- $201
- User PnL
- -$76.38
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $94.25
- Potential payout
- $183
- Potential profit
- $88.76
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $15.08
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $156.85
- Potential profit
- $156.85
- User PnL
- -$53.71
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $137
- Potential profit
- $137
- User PnL
- -$20.69
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132
- Potential profit
- $132
- User PnL
- -$17.16
Y
Yes position
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $33
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $77
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$11
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.42K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59K
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $521.29
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $491.51
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.08
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $145.2
No position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $121.79
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.8
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $72.29
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.79
No position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- $69.54
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.66
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.24
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.85
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.3
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.5
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.7
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.32
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.73
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.46
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.74
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 17.7% 322 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 16.2% 326 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 95.9% 0.15 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 83.9% 6 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?No 32% 16 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 0.34 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 1.03 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 0.34 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 89% 1,119 shares
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.7% 525 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 96.1% 2,953.62 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 94.2% 76 shares