No position
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.55K
- Potential profit
- $15.55K
- User PnL
- -$10.28K
Polymarket Trader
0xb4f2...e5fa
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $92.73K
- Realized PnL
- $67.22K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $11.07K
- Potential payout
- $11.71K
- Potential profit
- $644.08
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $4.03K
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $10.4K
- Potential payout
- $10.78K
- Potential profit
- $382.64
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.45K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.59K
- Potential profit
- $10.59K
- User PnL
- -$6.86K
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $9.65K
- Potential payout
- $10.27K
- Potential profit
- $616.24
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $5.87K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.68K
- Potential profit
- $9.68K
- User PnL
- -$1.01K
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $7.41K
- Potential payout
- $9.62K
- Potential profit
- $2.21K
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $1.91K
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $1.06K
- Potential payout
- $7.88K
- Potential profit
- $6.81K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$449.56
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.66K
- Potential profit
- $7.66K
- User PnL
- -$2.61K
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $7.02K
- Potential payout
- $7.47K
- Potential profit
- $448.21
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $686.93
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.99K
- Potential profit
- $6.99K
- User PnL
- -$3.24K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.63K
- Potential profit
- $6.63K
- User PnL
- -$2.92K
N
No position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $5.23K
- Potential payout
- $6.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$464.39
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $3.05K
- Potential payout
- $6.29K
- Potential profit
- $3.24K
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$1.08K
No position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $5.56K
- Potential payout
- $6.25K
- Potential profit
- $687.73
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $998.6
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $3.15K
- Potential payout
- $6.11K
- Potential profit
- $2.96K
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $382.18
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $5.1K
- Potential payout
- $5.21K
- Potential profit
- $114.66
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $4.92K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $77.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $417.5
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $4.71K
- Potential payout
- $4.86K
- Potential profit
- $145.71
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $931.1
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.49K
- Potential profit
- $4.49K
- User PnL
- -$2.99K
Yes position
No one announced as next James Bond?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $4.16K
- Potential payout
- $4.42K
- Potential profit
- $265.41
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $251.04
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $4.26K
- Potential payout
- $4.38K
- Potential profit
- $113.81
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $496.82
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $2.78K
- Potential payout
- $3.35K
- Potential profit
- $571.48
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $680.32
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $3.19K
- Potential payout
- $3.3K
- Potential profit
- $115.67
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $520.45
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.37K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.78K
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.67K
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.46K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.1K
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.83K
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8K
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.89K
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63K
No position
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.47K
No position
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46K
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.42K
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33K
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33K
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.07K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.91K
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9K
No position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62K
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59K
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 60.1% 2,497.86 shares
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 87% 488.73 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 58.9% 437.85 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 73% 1,918.34 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 42% 310 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?No 91% 5,305 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Yes 0.5% 80.7 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 98.2% 129.87 shares
- Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?No 95.1% 787 shares
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?No 96.1% 46.98 shares
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?No 95.1% 1,552 shares
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?No 95.8% 278 shares